Market Snapshot | December 15, 2023

Corn futures are chopping around unchanged at midmorning.

Corn futures are chopping in a narrow trading range in directionless trade.
The Biden administration said earlier today it will recognize methodology favored by the ethanol industry in guidance to companies looking to claim tax credits for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), though it will update the methodology by March 1. That leaves some uncertainty for corn-based ethanol.
Chinese corn breeders are preparing for the panting of more than double the amount of GMO corn next year, three industry sources told Reuters, with Beijing expected to tightly control the situation. GMO corn reportedly will be allowed on around 10 million mu, or about 670,000 hectares (1.66 million acres), in eight provinces next year.
March corn futures are finding support at $4.77 1/4, while initial resistance is at $4.80 3/4 along with the 20- and 10-day moving averages around $4.83.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 9 cents lower, while January meal futures are around $1.00 higher. January soyoil futures are more than 80 points lower.

Soybean futures are lower as traders await NOPA’s late-morning crush data.
USDA reported daily soybean sales of 134,000 MT to China and 447,500 MT to unknown destinations – both for 2023-24.
Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 186.0 million bu. of soybeans in November. If realized, that would be down 2% from the all-time record in October, but up 3.8% from year-ago and a record for the month. It would also be the third largest NOPA crush figure on record for any month. Soyoil stocks are forecast at 1.138 billion lbs., up 3.5% from Oct.
Net drying in Brazil will continue through Monday and probably into Tuesday with very little rain and hot temps resulting in rapid drying across the nation, notes World Weather Inc. Center-south, northern center-west and northeastern Brazil are expected to receive some rain following the latest heatwave, with showers diminishing the following weekend.
January soybeans are trading below the 10-day moving average of $13.11 1/4, with additional support at $13.05 1/2. Resistance is at $13.18 1/4 and the 20-day moving average of $13.28 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents higher, while HRW wheat is mostly a penny lower. HRS futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher.

SRW wheat futures are posting gains for the second straight session despite U.S. dollar strength, though technical headwinds are clamping upside momentum.
Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta surpassed its grain export record this year thanks to a surge in shipments from Ukraine. Ukraine grain accounted for roughly 40% of the total — 13 MMT — up from 8.6 MMT in all of 2022.
Relief from dryness in HRW wheat areas the past two days has been significant, with additional rains today and more in the second week of the forecast, according to World Weather Inc.
March SRW futures continue to face technical resistance at the 100- and 10-day moving averages of $6.22 1/2 and $6.23 1/4, while initial support lies at $6.08 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are posting mild losses at midmorning.

Live cattle are pulling back from corrective gains earlier this week.
Cash cattle have traded at lower prices so far this week, limiting buying efforts in futures.
Choice boxed beef rose 68 cents Thursday to $292.32, while Select fell 95 cents to $258.26, widening the Choice/Select spread to $34.06. Movement remained strong at 170 loads.
February live cattle are consolidating mostly between initial resistance at $168.73 and the 10-day moving average of $166.66.

Lean hogs are choppy with a slight upside bias at midsession.

February lean hogs have rebounded from earlier weakness, though price action is choppy.
The CME lean hog index is down 38 cents to $67.75 as of Dec. 13 following Thursday’s 43-cent gain.
The pork cutout value dropped 36 cents Thursday to $83.57, led lower by primal picnics and hams. Movement totaled 280.3 loads.
February lean hogs are hovering above the 20-day moving average of $70.02. Initial resistance stands at $71.59.

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