Ahead of the Open | November 10, 2023
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 2 cents lower to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 to 3 cents higher; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans saw modest losses overnight following volatile trade on Thursday following the updated USDA reports, while wheat went into the break on session highs, modestly higher. Outside markets are supportive this morning as bond yields are lower, which sent the U.S. dollar index modestly lower as well. Front-month crude oil futures are trading higher as well.
Grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today. Government offices are closed for Veterans Day. Pro Farmer salutes all those who served in the military so we can enjoy the freedom of our great country.
Brazil’s center west and center south crop areas are expected to see net drying for at least nine to ten more days, World Weather Inc says. The lack of precip is met with some very warm to hot temperatures keeping evaporation rates strong.
Argentine farmers could plant more fields with soybeans than initially estimated, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said, as rains put an end to a drought that affected large parts of key growing regions. The exchange said soybean planted area could extend beyond the 17.1 million hectares it initially forecast. Rainfall arrived too late for fields originally intended for some crops, such as early corn in the north part of Argentina’s agricultural core and sunflower crop in western areas, the exchange said, causing them to be re-destined for soybeans.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, and the two nations are experiencing an economic role reversal. The U.S. economy has strengthened this year, driven by strong consumer spending and government subsidies for specific industries, defying predictions of a recession. In contrast, China is grappling with a property market downturn that has had a negative impact on its overall economy. Observers say these shifting economic fortunes are likely to influence the discussions between Yellen and He this week, as well as the upcoming meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping next week. The changing dynamics highlight the evolving nature of the economic relationship between the two countries and could have implications for future economic and trade policies.
CORN: December corn futures traded in a tight range overnight though favored the downside. Losses remained capped by yesterday's for-the-move low of $4.66 1/2. Bulls are seeking to defend this level, else a trip to $4.50 is likely. Bears are seeking to defend $4.70 resistance, backed by $4.74.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw slight downward pressure overnight, though yesterday’s low, paired with 10-day moving average support at $13.41 1/4, limited the downside. Bulls are seeking to protect $13.25 support on additional selling, while targeting resistance at $13.65 3/4, with backing from this week’s high of $13.84 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw muted volatility overnight. Prices remain in an uptrend on the daily bar chart despite Thursday’s rout, bulls are seeking to hold prices above trendline support at $5.75, a break and close below which would indicate a technical breakdown, targeting $5.60, with $5.64 1/2 support on the way. Bulls are looking to break prices back above the 40-day moving average, currently at $5.82 1/2, backed by this week’s high of $5.98 3/4.
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open under pressure in continuation of Thursday’s weakness. December futures plunged to the lowest level since late May amid a technical-based selloff and long liquidation. The selloff triggered sharp losses in cash cattle trade, which took place $4 to $5 below last week’s average. Meanwhile, wholesale beef prices are trying to find a bottom. Choice cutout remains below the $300.00 mark, which acted as stiff support prior to the recent downturn, as prices rose 67 cents to $299.42. Select continues to slip, falling $1.61 to $269.42.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, though the recent sideways price action could limit gains. The CME lean hog index continues to rise, firming another 18 cents to $76.87 (as of Nov. 8), marking the third straight daily gain. That’s the longest string of gains since late July, when the index hit its seasonal peak. December lean hog futures are losing steam against the index following a meager $3.37 spread just a few days ago. December futures appear to be consolidating from the steep three-week rise, though cash fundamentals remain supportive, indicating that some additional upside followthrough is possible. Wholesale pork rose modestly Thursday, as prices firmed 36 cents to $86.94, led higher by bellies.
