Market Snapshot | November 7, 2023

Corn is mostly 4 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing pressure from outside markets, with commodities under heavy pressure and the U.S. dollar index higher.
• As of Sunday, USDA estimated corn harvest at 81% complete, four percentage points ahead of the five-year average.
• Estimates for 2023-24 corn acreage and output in Brazil’s largest agricultural-producing state of Mato Grosso have been downgraded due to low corn prices and delays in soybean planting, while uncertainties over the soybean crop mount, according to the state’s agriculture institute, IMEA. Acreage figures were cut 1.1%, with output projections down to 44.9 MMT.
• Conab reported Brazil’s 2023-24 summer corn crop planning efforts reached 40.2% during the week ended Nov. 4, a three percentage-point advance. Efforts continue to trail the 43% pace for the same period a year ago.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn crop estimate at 123 MMT but noted a lower bias amid “worrisome signs on the horizon for safrinha corn.” Cordonnier left his Argentine corn crop estimate unchanged at 52 MMT.
• December corn continues to be restricted by the 10-day moving average of $4.77 1/4, though initial support at $4.71 3/4 has pared losses.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 7 cents higher, while December meal futures are around $16.00 higher. December soyoil is around 120 points lower.

• Soybeans are notching gains for the sixth straight session amid strong gains in meal futures.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 110,000 MT for delivery to China during 2023-24.
• USDA estimated soybean harvest was 91% complete as of Sunday, five percentage points ahead of the five-year average.
• Brazil’s soybean planting efforts advanced by 8.4 percentage points in the week of Nov. 4 to 48.4%, according to Conab, but remains behind last year’s rate for this time of 57.5%.
• Cordonnier kept his Brazilian soybean crop estimate unchanged at 160 MMT but indicated a neutral to lower bias. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 50 MMT.
• China imported 5.16 MMT of soybeans in October, according to customs data, which was a 24.6% increase from a year earlier but down 27.8% from September and lower than the 6.5 MMT to 7 MMT traders expected as some cargoes were delayed. Through the first 10 months of this year, China imported 82.42 MMT of soybeans, up 14.6% from the same period last year.
• January soybeans have extended as high as $13.80, with resistance at $13.79 1/2 limiting momentum. Meanwhile, initial support remains at $13.54.

SRW wheat contracts are mostly a penny lower, while HRW futures are 9 to 10 cents lower. HRS contracts are narrowly mixed.

• SRW wheat futures are chopping around unchanged, with improving U.S. crop conditions and a stronger U.S. dollar limiting buyer interest.
• USDA rated 50% of the winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent.” When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect) the HRW crop improved 2.3 points to 321,0, while the SRW crop rose 1.6 points to 371.5. Both crops are rated well above year-ago levels at this time.
• Ukrainian winter crops sown for the 2024 harvest are able to successfully pass the winter and can produce a good harvest, according to scientists of the Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine.
• December SRW futures have extended above the 40-day moving average of $5.76 and resistance at $5.80 1/4, with the next area of resistance standing at $5.84 1/2. The 10-day moving average of $5.69 1/2 is serving as initial support. 

Live cattle are mixed, while feeders are lower at midmorning.

• December live cattle are attempting to regain a portion of Monday’s losses after edging lower early in the session, though technical resistance is capping gains.
• Last week’s average cash cattle price rose 87 cents from the previous week to $184.89.
• Boxed beef prices continued to slide Monday, with Choice falling 62 cents to $301.72, while Select fell $1.65 to $270.36, widening the Choice/Select spread to $31.36. Movement was light, however at only 87 loads.
• December live cattle have tested support at $180.61 for the first time since Oct. 27, with additional support lying at $179.89. The 20-day moving average of $182.29 is serving as initial resistance.  

Lean hogs are posting moderate to strong gains at midsession.

• Lean hog futures are supported by Monday’s surge in wholesale pork values.
• The pork cutout value surged $4.33 Monday to $91.61 amid a near $15 jump in bellies. Movement totaled 220.1 loads for the day.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 22 cents to $76.23 as of Nov. 3, with December futures trading at around a $2.35 discount to the cash index.
• China imported 552,000 MT of meat during October, down 43,000 MT (7.2%) from September. Its meat imports during the first 10 months of this year totaled 6.26 MMT, up 3.8% from the same period last year.
• December lean hogs gapped higher at the open and have rallied above the 100-day moving average of $73.73, with additional resistance at $72.28. Initial support lies at the 40-day moving average of $71.50.