Midwest Seen Turning Warm, Dry into July, Curbing Corn Yield Potential

Posted on 06/12/2018 10:49 AM

Warmer, drier risks are increasing for second half of June into July after recent widespread, beneficial rains across portions of the northern Plains and Midwest, Ed Vallee, president of Vallee Weather Consulting in Fayetteville, North Caroline, said Tuesday.  A few spots may have received too much rain in parts of Illinois and Indiana the past 24 hours, flooding a few fields and slowing root development of both corn and soybeans.

High pressure will build across the central U.S. this week, raising temperatures and drying out top soils. Timely showers and rain still look likely to develop this weekend from Texas and New Mexico to northern Minnesota as the storms track north of the warm, dry air in the central U.S. Those storms could move into parts of the Delta and southern Midwest early next week, maintaining favorable conditions.  USDA reported 77% of the U.S. corn crop was rated in “good” and “excellent” condition on June 10 compared with a 67% rating a year ago.

The larger risk is the development of much warmer and drier weather during the last week of June and continuing into July, potentially damaging corn during pollination. Confidence is higher for the much-above-normal temperatures than a completely dry pattern developing into July.

``If we flip to the hot, dry pattern, it won’t take much to deplete the soil moisture reserves,’’ Vallee said.  ``We can still get a good crop with timely rains.’’

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