Market Snapshot | October 11, 2023

Corn is holding near unchanged, but mildly favoring the upside at midmorning.

Corn futures are chopping around unchanged despite a general risk-off tone across commodities.
USDA reported corn harvest progressed to 34% complete as of Oct. 9, ahead of the five-year average by three percentage points The “good” to “excellent” rating remained at 53%.
World Weather Inc. reports harvest weather in the U.S. is expected to be mostly good, although heavy rains across parts of the Corn Belt through Saturday will slow or delay progress briefly.
Argentina still needs significant rain to support early corn plantings, states World Weather, though a general soaking rain is not likely for a while.
December corn are hovering above the 40- and 20-day moving averages of $4.83 3/4 and $4.82 3/4, respectively. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of $4.87 1/2 is serving as initial resistance.

Soybeans are mostly 12 to 14 cents lower, while December meal futures are more than $2.00 lower. December soyoil is around 30 points lower.

Soybean futures have given up Tuesday’s gains amid corrective selling in meal futures.
USDA announced daily soybean sales of 121,000 MT to China and 213,000 MT to unknown destinations – both for 2023-24.
USDA report harvest reached 43% done as of Sunday, six percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Meanwhile, the “good” to “excellent” crop rating declined one point from the previous week to 51%.
Brazil weather will be a little too wet in the south at times, causing some delays in fieldwork and an erratic rainfall pattern in center-west remains of “some” concern, according to World Weather.
November soybeans are trading within Tuesday’s range after being turned back by the 10-day moving average at $12.74. Initial support lies at $12.59 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents lower, while HRS contracts are 3 to 5 cents lower.

SRW wheat is facing followthrough selling amid a lack of supportive news.
USDA reported winter wheat plantings were 57% completed as of Oct. 9, which was in-line with the five-year average. The government estimated 29% of the crop was emerged.
France’s ag ministry raised its forecast for 2023-24 wheat exports outside the EU by 300,000 MT to 9.8 MMT, though that would still be 3.5% below last year. The ministry cut its forecast for wheat exports within the bloc by 210,000 MT to 7.54 MMT, which would be up 14.8% from 2022-23.
A senior Ukrainian ag ministry official said he still expects the country to plant 4.4 million hectares of winter wheat. However, Ukraine’s ag minister warned last week not all intended winter wheat acres would likely be seeded. As of Oct. 9, 3.7 million hectares of wheat had been sowed.
Wheat quality in southern Brazil is suffering a notable decline and production cuts are expected due to head sprouting and disease from wet weather.
December SRW futures are hovering above support at $5.51, with additional support at $5.43 1/2. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average, now at $5.64 1/4, continues to provide resistance.

Live cattle are posting slight gains, while feeders are mixed.

Live cattle futures are marking modest gains despite weakness in wholesale prices, though solid movement is supportive.
Only light cash cattle trade in the north at steady prices has been reported so far this week, while no trade has been reported in the Southern Plains.
Wholesale beef prices fell Tuesday, with Choice down $2.36 to $301.06, while Select slid $1.35 to $276.15, though movement was strong at 217 loads.
October live cattle continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $183.22, while support remains at $182.18. However, a bear flag pattern on the daily chart indicates a close below last week’s low of $184.60 would likely result in an extended breakdown.

Lean hogs are mostly lower at midmorning.

October lean hogs are slightly higher, though solid overhead resistance is limiting buyer interest.
The CME lean hog index is down another 20 cents to $82.26 as of Oct. 9, though there are signs the cash index is potentially stabilizing.
The pork cutout value fell $1.99 to $93.07, led by a more than $19.00 drop in bellies. Movement was solid at 319.6 loads for the day.
October lean hogs are trading mostly within the 20-day moving average of $82.17 and the 40-day moving average of $81.87.

Tags