Market Snapshot | September 21, 2023

Corn is mostly 4 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing spillover weakness from wheat futures and the soy complex.
• USDA reported a daily corn sale of 137,160 MT for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 121,920 MT is for delivery during 2023-24 and 15,240 MT during 2024-25.
• USDA reported new-crop corn sales of 566,900 MT during week ended Sept. 14, which were down 25% from the previous week and near the low-end of the expected pre-report range of 550,000 MT to 1.1 MMT. Net sales were primarily to Japan, Mexico and China.
• World Weather Inc. notes the eastern Midwest, the Tennessee River Basin and the interior southeastern states will all be drier than usual through much of the weekend but should get some rain after that. The western Corn Belt will get waves of rain today through Monday and again briefly late next week and in early October.
• The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2023-24 global corn production by 1 MMT to 1.222 billion metric tons, boosted by an improved outlook for Ukraine’s crop.
• December corn is pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $4.79 1/4, with support at $4.76 3/4. The 20-day moving average of $4.82 1/2 provides resistance.

Soybeans are mostly 17 to 20 cents lower, while December meal futures are more than $4.00 lower. December soyoil is around 50 points lower.

• Soybeans are notably lower amid weak export data, corrective selling in meal futures and persisting soyoil weakness.
• USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 434,100 MT for 2023-24, which were down 38% from the previous week and missed the expected pre-report range of 550,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Net sales were primarily to China, Japan and the Netherlands.
• Malaysian palm oil futures hit a three-month low close overnight, echoing steep declines in Dalian’s soyoil contract.
• November soybeans are finding support at $13.00 but are being limited by the 100-day moving average of $13.05 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 8 cents lower, while HRW is 10 to 12 cents lower. HRS contracts are 8 to 10 cents lower.

• Wheat futures taking pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and weak demand.
• Wheat export sales for 2023-24 totaled 307,700 MT in week ended Sept. 14, which were down 30% from the previous week and 20% from the four-week average. Sales were near the low-end of the pre-report range of 250,000 to 600,000 MT.
• The cargo ship “Resilient Africa,” loaded with 3,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat, arrived at Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait on Thursday. It is the first loaded vessel to sail from Ukraine and out of the Black Sea using a temporary corridor. The “Aroyat” has yet to leave the port of Chornomorsk.
• Slovakia and Ukraine have agreed to establish a licensing system for trading grains, allowing a ban on imports of four Ukrainian commodities to Slovakia to be lifted once the system is set up, according to the Slovak ag ministry. Ukraine’s ag minister also agreed to “work out an option to cooperate on export issues” with Poland.
• Hot, dry weather this month has further reduced wheat production prospects in Australia. El Niño conditions are expected to persist and strengthen, with production risks looming as a result. Some traders believe the crop will decline to the 22 MMT to 23 MMT, which is down from forecasts of 25.4 MMT earlier this month from the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences.
• December SRW futures continue to consolidate sideways mostly between the 10-day moving average of $5.90 1/4 and support at $5.70.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply lower at midmorning.

• Live cattle are facing profit-taking amid notable weakness in wholesale beef prices.
• Initial light cash cattle trade in Iowa pointed to higher prices, though some cash sources have backed down from earlier predictions given falling wholesale beef prices.
• Boxed beef prices dropped 86 cents to $301.26 for Choice, while Select slipped $3.10 to $278.68 on Wednesday, taking the Choice/Select spread to $22.58. Movement increased to 196 loads, indicating prices may have cheapened enough in the near-term.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 13,700 MT for 2023, which rose noticeably from the previous week and 15% from the four-week average.
• October live cattle are trading within Wednesday’s range, with the 10-day moving average of $185.15 serving as initial support, while Wednesday’s close of $186.775 is serving as resistance.

Lean hogs are posting heavy losses at midsession.

• Hog futures are sharply pulling back from strong gains the past two days.
• The CME lean hog index rose 9 cents to $86.67 as of Sept. 19.
• The pork cutout value dropped $1.91 on Wednesday to $99.22 amid a decline in all cuts except a modest increase in primal butts.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 30,200 MT for 2023, which were up 31% from the previous week and 1% from the four-week average.
• October lean hogs have dropped below the 200-day moving average of $84.63 and are testing support at the 10-day moving average of $83.65. Wednesday’s close of $84.675 is initial resistance.