Market Snapshot | August 30, 2023

Snapshot
Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is around a penny lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures have faced selling pressure since the re-opening after mild corrective gains overnight.
  • Rain chances have increased from Tuesday into Wednesday next week with roughly half of the Corn Belt expected to receive some rainfall, though it is unlikely to have much of an impact on the moisture stressed crop.
  • The Ohio, Illinois, lower Missouri and Mississippi river levels are dropping and are expected to continue lower over the next week. If river levels do not increase soon restrictions to barge traffic is likely.
  • Ethanol production averaged 1.007 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Aug 25, down 41,000 bpd from the previous week but 37,000 bpd (3.8%) above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks fell 1.18 million barrels to 21.61 million barrels.
  • December corn fell below 10-day moving average support, though the contract is above last week’s low. Initial support stands at $4.80, while resistance stands at $4.88 then $4.93 1/2.

 

Soybeans are 5 to 7 cents lower and September meal futures are around $5.00 lower. September soyoil is near unchanged.

  • Soybean futures are extending yesterday’s weakness as the market was unable to build on the corrective buying overnight.
  • Another two weeks of restricted rainfall is likely across the Corn Belt, alongside warm to hot temperatures late this week into the middle of next week. That will likely lead to additional reductions in soybean yields in drier areas, World Weather Inc says.
  • USDA reported daily soybean sales of 266,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24.
  • November soybeans closed Monday’s gap. Initial support stands at $13.85 and is backed by the important pivot level at $13.81. Resistance stands at the psychological $14.00 level.

 

SRW wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents higher, while HRW futures are around a penny lower. HRS contracts are 2 to 4 cents lower.

  • Winter wheat futures have traded both sides of unchanged, though in fairly tight ranges, while spring wheat futures continue to slide, making a three-month low.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will hold talks on Thursday and Friday with his Turkish counterpart regarding the Black Sea grain deal, which Moscow pulled out of in mid-July.
  • Lavrov and Turkish minister of Foreign affairs Fidan will discuss Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to supply 1 MMT of grain to Turkey with financial support from Qatar.
  • The Northern Plains are expected to remain mostly dry through Sunday, leading to quickened maturation and helping rapid harvest, though dryness will be stressful for immature crops.
  • December SRW futures have traded as low as $5.99 1/2, matching yesterday’s contract low. Initial resistance stands at $6.21 1/2.

 

Live cattle and feeders are facing moderate to sharp losses at midsession.

  • Live cattle are under pressure as traders await direction from the cash cattle market.  
  • Last week’s cash price was lower than anticipated, marking the third week in a row of losses, coming in $2.29 lower at an average of $182.75.
  • Wholesale beef prices fell yesterday for the second day in a row. Choice cutout fell $2.68 to $314.36 and Select fell $2.41 to $289.68. Movement improved once again to 107 loads.
  • October live cattle futures continue to struggle against trendline resistance, though the contract has been supported by the psychological $180 level. Stiff resistance is at $181.25. A daily close above the level would indicate a technical breakout.

 

Lean hogs are mostly lower at midsession.

  • Lean hogs are well off their intraday lows but still favoring the downside.
  • The CME lean hog index fell $1.48 to $92.41 on Monday, marking an acceleration of price pressure since the seasonal top at the end of July.
  • The pork cutout value fell $3.20 yesterday, again powered lower by declining belly values. Cutout values are likely to remain volatile until belly values stabilize.
  • October lean hogs continue the recent streak of higher lows and lower highs in a tightening technical pattern. This will likely continue for the time being, but the seasonal downturn in both the cash hog index and wholesale prices favors bears. Nearby support stands at $80.00 with resistance at $82.00.

 

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