Market Snapshot | July 25, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 3 cents lower midmorning.

• Corn futures are experiencing profit-taking following Monday’s strong gains but have turned from earlier lows.
• USDA left its “good” to “excellent” rating unchanged at 57%, while traders were expecting a one percentage point increase from last week. When USDA’s weekly condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop fell one point to 349.0, which is still 8.17 (2.3%) below a year ago. Conditions declined in 11 of the 18 top production states. 
• Harvesting of safrinha corn in Brazil should advance favorably and the same is expected for the first corn planting which will begin next month, according to World Weather Inc. 
• December corn traded as high as $5.72 overnight but found notable resistance at the 200-day moving average of $5.73 1/2 for the second straight session. Initial support lies at $5.48 1/4.

Soybeans are 11 to 15 cents lower, while August meal futures are over $3.50 higher. Soyoil is around 60 points lower.

• Soybeans are facing mild correcting selling in tandem with soyoil futures which are trading lower for the first time in five sessions. Though meal strength is dampening selling efforts.
• USDA lowered its “good” to “excellent” rating by one percentage point to 54%, while the portion rated “poor” to “very poor” rose a point to 14%. On our CCI, soybeans fell one point to 338.2, still 12.4 points (3.5%) below a year ago. Conditions worsened in 9 of the top 18 production states.
• World Weather Inc. notes areas from parts of Missouri, northwestern Illinois through portions of Iowa to the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin have been driest and crop stress is most significant in those areas, with little relief expected in the coming week. Though some increase in shower activity may occur next week.
• November soybeans are trading within Monday’s range, with resistance serving at the previous session’s high of $14.35, while support lies around $14.05 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are mostly unchanged to 3 cents higher while HRW is around a penny to 4 cents lower. HRS contracts are 3 to 8 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are marking slight gains after reaching the highest level since mid-February overnight as traders continue to monitor the conflict in the Black Sea.
• The Kremlin stated overnight it was impossible for Russia to return to the Black Sea grain deal until an agreement related to Russian interests was honored, rejecting a call by U.N. Secretary Antonio Guterres for Moscow to rejoin.
• The European Union is ready to export almost all of Ukraine’s agriculture goods via solidarity lanes, according to the EU’s agriculture commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski. The commissioner stated 60% of Ukraine’s exports were shipped via solidarity lanes prior to Russia pulling out of the Black Sea gran deal, while 40% went to the Black Sea.
• USDA lowered its spring wheat “good” to “excellent” rating two points to 49%. On our CCI, the crop fell 2.8 points to 336.4, which is 36.1 points (9.7%) below a year ago. Conditions declined in all six production states.
• September SRW wheat futures are trading around Monday’s close after reaching as high as $7.77 1/4 overnight in a breach of resistance at $7.77. Support lies around $7.37 3/4.

Live cattle are notably lower, while feeders post modest losses.

• Nearby Live cattle are extending lower for the fourth straight session as technicals slightly erode, though underlying fundamentals remain fully bullish.  
• Cash cattle trade has been light to start the week with trade in Iowa steady to $2 higher. Cash sources expect prices to remain firm into this week after rising $1.92 to $186.19 last week.
• Choice boxed beef rose $1.42 on Monday to $304.16, while Select increased 26 cents to $276.99. The increase is largely driven by reduced slaughter as packers drive to stabilize box prices and manage the smaller supply of fed cattle.
• USDA will release its Cold Storage Report following the close.
• August live cattle are trading mostly between the 10-day moving average of $179.42 and initial support of $178.075.

Lean hogs are higher at midsession.

• August lean hogs are edging moderately higher but are being limited by resistance at last Friday’s high. However solid fundamentals and a steep discount to the cash index could lend bulls the needed momentum to move higher.
• The CME lean hog index rose another 56 cents to $104.60 as of July 21.
• The pork cutout value gained $1.96 on Monday to $117.21, led by a $9.30 increase in bellies. Movement totaled 27.5 loads for the day.
• August lean hogs have traded as high as $101.875, extending above resistance at $101.02 but found solid resistance at $101.93. Support lies near $100.48.