Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Uptrend Still in Place

Posted on 02/27/2018 11:55 AM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mostly higher on the week again.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 1.62 points to 540.64, which compares to last year's 527.10.
  • You should be 100% filled on nitrogen, phosphate and potassium for spring/summer applications. nitrogen chart

Nitrogen

  • UAN28% led gains in the nitrogen segment this week, although gains were generally mild.
  • Anhydrous ammonia continued higher on strength in Indiana and Ohio.
  • Urea prices were mixed from state to state, netting just a small change this week.
  • After firming sharply last week, UAN32% is up less than a dollar regionally this week.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices were mixed with DAP off slightly and MAP gingerly higher on the week.
  • The DAP/MAP spread heavily favors MAP, which is at a $34.59 premium to DAP. That is considerably higher than the historical average, but the way the market fundamentals are set up, there is more risk DAP will firm than MAP will fall.
  • Wholesale phosphate values are sharply higher on the week and year-on-year although product at Chinese terminals ran sideways on the week.pandk indices chart
  • We are 100% filled on spring phosphate and we see little price relief in the near-term.

Potash

  • Potash prices were slightly higher on the week amid mild, back-and-forth price action from state-to-state.
  • Retail potash remains priced in-line with anhydrous ammonia on an indexed basis suggesting potash presents a fair value.
  • Wholesale potash prices are slightly higher at most terminals around the world but were reported unchanged in the Corn Belt in the week ended February 23.
  • We feel less of a sense of urgency to get potash covered for spring as prices are not likely to firm sharply without notice, but we still recommend covering 100% of your potassium needs for spring applications.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Friday, February 23 at $3.97 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $632.40 per acre -- unchanged on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 540.64 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 8.75 points and now stands at -91.76.
Fertilizer
2/12/18
2/20/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$500.17
$503.95
+$1.88
$505.83
Anhydrous
DAP
$467.52
$472.54
-43 cents
$472.12
DAP
MAP
$498.02
$504.88
+$1.83
$506.71
MAP
Potash
$339.92
$342.83
+14 cents
$342.96
Potash
UAN28
$232.94
$228.17
+$2.04
$230.21
UAN28
UAN32
$251.26
$259.72
+92 cents
$260.65
UAN32
Urea
$362.23
$366.46
+89 cents
$367.36
Urea
Composite
536.82
539.02
+1.62
540.64
Composite

nutrient composite index

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