Market Snapshot | July 18, 2023

Corn is marking 12- to 15- cent gains at midmorning.

Corn futures are posting notable gains amid rising tensions in Ukraine following Russia’s suspension of the Black Sea grain deal. Russia attacked Ukraine’s Odesa grain port overnight.
USDA raised its “good” to “excellent” rating for corn two points to 57%. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect) the corn crop improved 5.3 points to 349.9, though that was still 13.4 points (3.7%) below year-ago. Improvements were noted in 11 of the top 18 corn production states.
Worry over net drying in areas from Iowa and parts of Illinois into the Dakotas may be a little greater today since forecast models reduced some of the rain, notes World Weather Inc.
Brazil’s safrinha harvest reached 39.3% complete in the week ending July 15, a ten-percentage point advance on the week, according to Conab. The harvest pace trails the 49.2% completion rate from a year ago.
December corn has posted an intraday high of $5.22 1/4, breaching resistance at $5.13 3/4. Additional resistance stands around the 20- and 40-day moving averages of $5.26 3/4 and $5.28 1/2, respectively. The 10-day moving average at $4.94 3/4 continues to provide support.

Soybeans are mostly 11 to 17 cents higher, while August meal futures are around $8.00 higher. Soyoil is around 10 points higher.

Soybeans are higher amid forecasts for drier weather beginning Friday through the first of August.
USDA increased its “good” to “excellent” rating for soybeans by four points to 55%. On our weighted CCI, soybeans rose 7.6 points to 339.3, though that was still 14.2 points (4.0%) below last year on this date. Of the top 18 production states, 15 improved. Iowa and Illinois led the crop ratings gains.
World Weather Inc. continues to predict a transition of drier weather beginning Friday through Aug. 1, along with the return of hot temps next week, which will cause rapid drying of the soil across the Midwest and stress to crops.
Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower today, ending a two-session increase amid lackluster demand and as traders positioned ahead of a public holiday.
November soybeans have extended above resistance at $13.88 1/4 and $13.98 1/4, with additional resistance standing at $14.07 3/4. Initial support lies at $13.68 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are around 14 to 16 cents higher, while HRS contracts are narrowly mixed.

Wheat futures are moderately higher amid underlying global supply concerns and increased uncertainty around Ukrainian grain shipments.
Russia struck Ukraine’s port of Odesa with missiles and drones on Tuesday, a day after pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal. Russia called the attack on the port “mass revenge strikes” in retaliation for attacks by Ukraine that knocked out its road bridge to the occupied Crimean Peninsula a day earlier.
USDA raised its “good” to “excellent” rating for spring wheat by four points to 51%. The spring wheat crop jumped 10.9 points on the CCI tot 339.2, though that was still 37.8 points (10.0%) below year-ago.
Little to no rain will occur in the western half of the Northern Plains during the next seven days and temps will rise to above average starting this weekend, according to World Weather Inc.
September SRW wheat have pushed above the 40-day moving average of $6.56 1/2, though resistance stands at $6.78 1/4. Support remains at $6.40.

Live cattle are posting modest gains, while feeders are moderately lower.

Live cattle are mildly higher as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop.
Cash cattle negotiations are likely to extend late into the week, but cash prices are expected to firm again after rising $2.21 to an average of $184.27 last week.
Choice beef prices rose 84 cents on Monday to $306.78, while Select fell 87 cents to $275.74, taking the Choice/Select spread to $31.04. Movement totaled 105 loads for the day. Eroding margins are causing some plants to further reduce kill runs to manage tight market-ready cattle supplies, which should help the product market put in a seasonal bottom.
August live cattle are trading within Monday’s range. Monday’s high of $181.60 serves as initial resistance, while support remains at $179.35.

Lean hogs are higher at mid-session, with strong gains in the August contract.

August lean hogs are shaking off Monday’s bearish reversal, as the contract takes over lead-month status at a notable discount to the rising cash index.
The CME lean hog index rose another 57 cents to $101.60 as of July 14.
The pork cutout value paused from the recent rally, dropping $2.84 on Monday to $112.71. While yesterday’s activity in the cash and product market tightened margins, they remain slightly in the black.
August lean hogs are trading within Monday’s range, with $97.10 serving as resistance and Monday’s close of $94.775 providing support.

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