Farm Fuels In Focus | Fuels May Have Topped

Posted on 02/09/2018 1:18 PM

 

  • March 2018 natural gas opened today at $2.61, down 58 cents from our last report.
  • Farm Diesel is unchanged on the week at an average of $2.42 per gallon.
  • March 2018 WTI crude oil opened the day at $60.43, down $3.31 from our last report.
  • March 2018 Heating oil futures opened the day at $1.90, off 16 cents from our last report.
  • Propane is 7 cents lower at $1.41 per gallon regionally.

Farm Diesel -- Diesel prices were widely mixed on the week with Minnesota leading declines,diesel falling 16 cents as Michigan softened 12 cents. Seven states were unchanged as Ohio firmed 14 cents, Nebraska gained 6 cents and Kansas added 3 cents per gallon.

On Monday of this week, Pro Farmer Senior Economist Dan Vaught talked heating oil futures with chip Flory on AgriTalkATB. Vaught noted a few technical features that pointed to downside potential for heating oil and, by extension, farm diesel. Dan-o was spot on with his analysis and March heating oil futures are down 20 cents on the week.

That levers for lower farm diesel prices next week. We will likely book some diesel next week so be prepared to cover a portion of your spring needs if prices tick lower.

Click here to listen to Dan Vaught on Monday's AgriTalkATB.


  • Distillate inventories reported by EIA firmed 3.9 million barrels to 141.8 mmbbl. Stocks are currently 28.9 mmbbl below the same time last year.
  • The regionwide low currently lies at $2.19 in Wisconsin. The Midwest high is at $2.82 in Indiana.
Farm Diesel 2/9/18
Three Weeks Ago
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
 
Iowa
$2.38
$2.29
Unchanged
$2.29
Iowa
Illinois
$2.31
$2.31
Unchanged
$2.31
Illinois
Indiana
$2.45
$2.82
Unchanged
$2.82
Indiana
Ohio
$2.10
$2.10
+14 cents
$2.24
Ohio
Michigan
$2.23
$2.63
-12 cents
$2.51
Michigan
Wisconsin
$2.19
$2.19
Unchanged
$2.19
Wisconsin
Minnesota
$2.32
$2.59
-16 cents
$2.43
Minnesota
North Dakota
$2.45
$2.45
Unchanged
$2.45
North Dakota
South Dakota
$2.35
 
$2.40
 
Unchanged
 
$2.40
 
South Dakota
Nebraska
$2.23
$2.29
+6 cents
$2.35
Nebraska
Kansas
$2.35
$2.31
+3 cents
$2.34
Kansas
Missouri
$2.71
$2.71
Unchanged
$2.71
Missouri
Midwest Average
$2.34
$2.42
Unchanged
$2.42
Midwest Average

Propane -- LP prices were led lower by Michigan, which fell 29 cents as Minnesota softened propane chart18 cents and Nebraska shucked 12 cents per gallon. Seven states were unchanged and no state posted a higher propane price.

It is a little early for propane prices to fall. Especially with national inventories falling. But this week's price action could be attributed to the fact that LP purchases have been made, and while consumption is undoubtedly high, on-farm stocks are likely fairly high.

If bitter cold weather persists, we could see a late-season demand spike. But for now, cascading prices in states like Michigan and Minnesota suggest the worst may be over for seasonal propane price strength.


  • According to EIA, national propane inventories fell 4.123 million barrels -- now 6.835 million barrels below the same time last year at 48.937 million barrels.
  • The regionwide low is at $1.20 per gallon in Wisconsin, and the regionwide high is in Minnesota at $1.71.
LP 2/9/18
Three Weeks Ago
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
 
Iowa
$1.39
$1.50
-6 cents
$1.44
Iowa
Illinois
$1.43
$1.43
Unchanged
$1.43
Illinois
Indiana
$1.49
$1.49
Unchanged
$1.49
Indiana
Ohio
$1.35
$1.35
Unchanged
$1.35
Ohio
Michigan
$1.56
$1.56
-29 cents
$1.27
Michigan
Wisconsin
$1.20
$1.20
Unchanged
$1.20
Wisconsin
Minnesota
$1.62
$1.89
-18 cents
$1.71
Minnesota
North Dakota
$1.34
$1.47
Unchanged
$1.34
North Dakota
South Dakota
Not Reported
 
Not Reported
 
Unchanged
 
Not Reported
 
South Dakota
Nebraska
$1.35
$1.42
-12 cents
$1.35
Nebraska
Kansas
$1.78
$1.42
-10 cents
 
$1.32
Kansas
Missouri
$1.82
$1.54
Unchanged
$1.54
Missouri
Midwest Average
$1.48
$1.48
-7 cents
$1.41
Midwest Average

farm diesel heating oil spread

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