Market Snapshot | June 14, 2023

Corn is mostly steady to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures have rallied from overnight lows though gains are limited by cautious outside markets ahead of the Fed’s announcement regarding interest rates this afternoon.
• Net drying during the next two weeks will leave a large part of the Midwest at a critical level of dryness. If timely rains return in the last days of June or first of July production potential could be high, but if rain does not increase, yield potential will quickly decline, notes World Weather Inc.
• Markets are broadly focused on the Fed’s decision on interest rates, which will be released this afternoon. Traders widely expect the Fed to pause its tightening cycle, which is heavily pressuring the U.S. dollar index.
• July corn have turned higher after earlier weakness. Support lies at $6.01 1/4, while resistance stands around $6.17.

Soybeans are steady to 6 cents lower, while July meal futures are around $2 lower. July soyoil is around 35 points lower.

• Soybeans have turned mixed on support from the push higher in corn.
• The U.S. soybean processing pace likely slowed for a second straight month in May as some crushers idled facilities for seasonal maintenance, analysts reported ahead of the monthly National Oilseed Processors Association data (NOPA), due out Thursday. It is estimated NOPA members crushed 175.880 million bushels last month, according to a Reuters poll.
• Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight for a second straight session, hitting a two-week high, tracking a rally in rival edible oils underpinned by concerns with dry weather conditions.
• July soybeans are trading within Tuesday’s range, with the 40-day moving average of $13.82 1/2 providing support, with Tuesday’s close of $13.99 1/4 serving up resistance.

SRW wheat is 6 to 8 cents lower, while HRW is 4 to 6 cents lower. HRS wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher.

• SRW wheat is encountering profit-taking following a four-day string of gains.
• Russia has said its “goodwill” on the Black Sea grain deal “cannot be endless.” On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of “cheating” Moscow by failing to deliver promises to help get Russian agricultural goods to world markets. He reiterated Russia was ready to exit the deal if its demands for improved access to exports weren’t met.
• Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2022-23 season stood at 47.1 MMT as of June 14, according to Agriculture Ministry data.
• July SRW wheat has moved off its earlier lows, which tested initial support at $6.25 1/2. The upside is limited by resistance around $6.37 1/4.

Live cattle are moderately to sharply lower, while feeders are posting heavier losses.

• Live cattle are extending losses despite steep discounts to the cash market.
• Cattle futures continue to trade well below the cash market as traders remain cautious given lofty price level.
• Cash cattle trade won’t likely occur until late tomorrow or Friday unless packers actively bid for supplies.
• Choice boxed beef prices continue to rise, with a 56-cent gain in Choice boxes on Tuesday to $337.99, the highest prices since the 2021 peak at $348.03. Select dropped 76 cents to $309.48, widening the Choice/Select spread to $28.51. Movement improved to 137 loads on the day.
• August live cattle are mostly hovering above the 10-day moving average of $173.17, with $172.51 serving up additional support. Resistance stands at $174.76.

Deferred lean hogs are posting strong gains, while the expiring June is near unchanged.  

• Lean hog futures are marking strong gains amid strengthening cash fundamentals.
• June hogs expire today and will be cash settled on Friday.
• The CME lean hog index is up 65 cents to $85.41 as of June 12, extending its seasonal climb.
• The pork cutout value rose $1.32 on Tuesday to $89.52, with gains in all cuts but primal hams. Movement totaled 385.2 loads on the day.
• August lean hogs gapped higher at the open and have reached as high as $90.55. The 100-day moving average at 94.35 will serve as the next area of resistance. Tuesday’s close of $87.425 will serve as support.