Market Snapshot | June 5, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are 2 to 9 cents lower, with nearby futures posting heavier losses.

  • Corn futures have fallen from overnight highs and the July contract is trading back below $6.00 as strength fades across the grain complex.
  • While possible widespread rains could occur across much of the Midwest Friday through Sunday, along with follow-up showers June 13-15, soaking rain is not expected from either event. Timely rains will be needed the second half of the month.
  • USDA reported corn export inspections of 1.18 MMT (46.5 million bu.) for week ended June 1, which were down 165,438 MT from the previous week but within the expected range of 800,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. 
  • July corn has reversed from overnight highs. Support at the 40-day moving average of $5.98 1/2 is being tested. Initial resistance stands at $6.19 1/4.

Soybeans are 1 to 3 cents lower. July meal futures are around $1.00 higher. July soyoil is around 50 points lower.

  • Soybeans are posting mild losses after notching solid overnight gains amid persisting dry weather across the Midwest.
  • USDA will release its first soybean crop condition ratings of the growing season after the close.
  • USDA reported soybean export inspections of 214,247 MT (7.9 million bu.), which were down 28,819 MT from last week and near the low-end of the expected pre-report range of 150,000 and 400,000 MT.
  • July soybeans traded as high as $13.61 1/2 before fading. Initial resistance stands at $13.64 1/2, while support lies at $13.43 1/4.

SRW wheat is mostly a penny to 3 cents higher, while HRW is up 5 to 9 cents. HRS wheat is mostly 10 to 12 cents higher.

  • Wheat futures are being supported by corrective buying, though contracts have backed off earlier highs.
  • USDA reported wheat export inspections of 291,599 MT (10.7 million bu.) to begin the 2023-24 marketing-year, which were down 99,693 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 200,000 and 450,000 MT.
  • TASS news agency quoted Russia’s foreign ministry as saying that it was continuing consultations with the United Nations over the Black Sea grain deal, and that ship inspections had resumed. Talks are scheduled for Friday in Geneva. However, the ministry said it saw no prospects for extending the Black Sea grain export deal, which currently runs through mid-July.
  • SovEcon forecasts Russia’s wheat exports in 2023-24 will reach a record 45.7 MMT, up 2.7 MMT from its prior forecast due to an increased production outlook and comments from Russia’s ag ministry that it plans no purchases for intervention stockpiles.
  • Most of Ukraine’s winter grain crop is in good condition but grain yields could fall by 20% if current hot, dry weather persists, according to APK-inform consultancy.
  • Ukrainian grain exports reached a record 3 MMT in May through the Danube River, as shipments via Black Sea ports saw a significant slowdown. To expand export routes, Ukraine is considering deepening the Danube shipping canal this year.
  • July SRW wheat has traded as high as $6.31 1/2, but has fallen from the overnight high. Support lies at $6.14 1/2.

Live cattle are mixed at midmorning. Feeders are slightly lower.

  • Nearby live cattle marked a fresh contract high in an extension of recent gains amid persisting bullish fundamentals, though buyer interest has faded from the start of the session.
  • While traders will have to wait until later today for the official average cash cattle price for last week, it will be a new record high. Futures remain well below the cash market despite strong gains this week, which opens the door to more buying.
  • Wholesale beef prices are also firming, with Choice rising $3.49 on Friday to $309.93, while Select jumped $4.61 to $290.93 on solid movement of 120 loads.
  • June live cattle gapped higher at the open but found resistance at $177.975. Additional resistance stands at $179.075, while support lies at $176.10.

Lean hogs are posting notable losses at midsession.

  • June lean hogs are solidly lower as profit-taking ensues following last week’s strong gains.
  • The CME lean hog index rose 89 cents to $80.52 as of June 1, and is the strongest daily gain in a while, though traders are anticipating additional cash strength.
  • The pork cutout value fell dropped 96 cents on Friday to $84.72, while movement totaled 283.2 loads.
  • June lean hogs gapped lower at the open and are hovering mostly above the 40-day moving average around $85.39, with additional support near $84.72. Initial resistance stands at Friday’s close of $86.725.
 

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