Evening Report | May 22, 2023

Evening Report
Evening Report
(Pro Farmer)

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Corn planting remains ahead of average... Corn planting advanced 16 percentage points to 81% done as of Sunday. That was six points ahead of the five-year average but one point slower than analysts surveyed by Reuters expected. Based on March planting intentions, there were 17.5 million acres of corn left to plant. Of the top 12 production states, only Kansas (71% planted vs. average of 75%) and North Dakota (32% vs. 50%) were behind the five-year average pace.

Corn emergence jumped 22 percentage points to 52%, which was seven points ahead of average.

USDA will issue its first corn crop condition ratings of the growing season next week.

 

Soybean planting reaches two-thirds done... USDA reported soybean plantings were 66% completed as of Sunday, 14 percentage points ahead of average and in line with analysts’ expectations. Based on March planting intentions, there were 29.8 million acres of soybeans left to seed. Of the top 13 production states, planting only lagged the average pace in Minnesota (53% vs. 57%) and North Dakota (20% vs. 33%). USDA reported 36% of the soybean crop had emerged, a rise of 16 points on the week and 12 points ahead of average for the third week of May.

 

Cotton planting not yet half done... Cotton planting advanced 10 percentage points to 45% done as of Sunday, though that was five points behind the five-year average. Cotton planting reached 35% in Texas (43% average) and 51% in Georgia (57%).

 

Spring wheat planting more advanced than expected but still lags... USDA said 64% of the spring wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, up 24 percentage points from the previous week but still nine points behind the five-year average. Traders expected USDA to report the crop at 60% seeded. Based on March planting intentions, there were still 3.8 million acres of spring wheat left to plant, with 2.7 million acres of that total in North Dakota. The North Dakota crop was 48% seeded, 17 percentage points behind average.

Spring wheat emergence stood at 32%, eight points behind average for the date. North Dakota’s crop was 13% emerged, 16 points behind average.

 

Winter wheat conditions improve... USDA rated 31% of the winter wheat crop “good” to “excellent,” a two-point increase from last week and one point higher than analysts expected. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” declined one point to 40%.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

18

18

22

Poor

22

23

18

Fair

29

30

32

Good

26

25

24

Excellent

5

4

4

USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 61% headed, right in line with the five-year average. The portion of crop headed stood at 73% in Kansas (75% average), 95% in Oklahoma (95%) and 92% in Texas (94%).

 

UN concerned with lack of ships at one Ukrainian port... The United Nations expressed concern Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Pivdennyi (Yuzhny) has not received any ships since May 2. UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said, “No vessels seeking to load foodstuffs in the port of Yuzhny/Pivdennyi have been approved for registration. The port of Yuzhny/Pivdennyi has not received any vessel since 2 May. We are concerned by this restriction, and we call again for the full resumption of operations.” He did not say who was to blame for the lack of ships traveling to the port near Odesa, which is also where Russia previously pumped up to 2.5 MMT of ammonia annually for export via a pipeline from Togliati.

Dujarric said since the deal was extended, nine ships have been inspected and cleared for travel, of which five are currently in the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk loading cargo. The Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul currently has 17 applications from vessels wanting to travel to Ukraine, while seven had been approved and were now waiting to be inspected.

 

EU crop monitor raises wheat, rapeseed yield forecast... The European Union’s crop monitoring service raised its forecasts of this year’s EU soft wheat and rapeseed yields, citing a good crop outlook overall except in the drought-impacted Iberian peninsula. In its monthly report, MARS raised its projection of this year’s yield for soft wheat to 6.01 metric tons per hectare from 5.96 last month. That would 4% higher than both last year and the five-year average.

MARS increased its rapeseed yield outlook to 3.34 metric tons per hectare from 3.31 forecast last month. The revised forecast would be fractionally above last year’s yield and 8% more than the five-year average.

In its first published projections for corn, MARS forecast the 2023 yield at 7.64 metric tons per hectare, which would be up 29% from a drought-diminished 2022 crop and 2% higher than the five-year average.

 

McCarthy sees debt deal progress; afternoon meeting set with Biden... House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said the two parties must strike a debt deal this week to avoid a U.S. default that could happen as soon as June 1. He said debt-limit discussions Monday morning with White House negotiators were productive ahead of a planned meeting later in the day with President Joe Biden. “We can get a deal tonight, we can get a deal tomorrow,” McCarthy told reporters at the Capitol Monday afternoon. But even as he expressed optimism, he stressed the two sides haven’t yet agreed to anything. With time growing short, McCarthy said, “Decisions have to start being made.”

 

Immigrants’ share of the U.S. labor force grows to a new high... Foreign-born workers’ share of the U.S. labor force rose last year to the highest level in 27 years of records, as labor demand surged and the pandemic faded. People born outside the U.S. made up 18.1% of the overall labor force, up from 17.4% the prior year and the highest level in data back to 1996, the Labor Department said. The number of immigrants in the labor force — those working or actively looking for jobs —rose by 1.8 million to 29.8 million in 2022. More foreign-born people joined the labor force than native-born Americans last year, the Wall Street Journal notes.

 

Sluggish U.S. population growth and accelerating baby-boomer retirements during the pandemic created labor shortages in many industries, increasing job opportunities for foreign-born workers. The Labor Department’s report doesn’t break down foreign-born workers by country of origin or legal status. The figures include legally admitted immigrants, refugees, temporary residents and immigrants lacking permanent legal status.

 

USDA research center ‘declining’... Three employees at USDA’s largest ag research center filed whistleblower complaints alleging years of mismanagement, delayed maintenance and staff cuts have pushed the Beltsville, Maryland, facility into decline. Reuters spoke with five current and one former employee of the facility who said that fume ventilation hoods in labs fail to meet code, fire alarms are left broken for months, wild temperature swings make work uncomfortable and undermine experiments, and even toilets and running water are often not functioning. The news agency reviewed hundreds of documents, photographs and videos the employees shared to support their claims.

 

Colorado River basin states reach agreement on water cutbacks... The states bordering the Colorado River have reached an agreement with the Biden administration to voluntarily conserve significant portions of their water supply in exchange for federal funding. This deal is a response to the concerning decrease in water levels in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the country’s largest reservoirs, due to two decades of drought and global warming. California, Arizona, and Nevada, forming the Lower Basin, have agreed to conserve 3 million acre-feet of water over the next three years, approximately 13% of their total allocation from the river. In return, the Biden administration has committed to compensate the states for three-quarters of the water savings, equating to around $1 to $1.2 billion in federal funds.

The Colorado River, which supports over 40 million people and plays a key role in the western U.S. agriculture sector, has been drying up for decades. The current agreement is seen as a temporary solution to safeguard the critical reservoir levels over the next three years. Water savings will be achieved by paying farmers and others who voluntarily forgo their water supplies.

The new deal requires the Lower Basin to conserve at least 3 million acre-feet by 2026, with at least half of that being achieved this year. If the reservoirs fall farther than expected over the next three years, emergency provisions in the agreement will kick in. Additional actions will be taken to maintain reservoir elevations of 1,000 feet above sea level at Lake Mead and 3,500 feet at Lake Powell.

Despite the recent increase in water levels due to heavy rain and snow, state and federal officials are hopeful that these reductions will be sufficient to protect the reservoirs until 2026. At that time, a major renegotiation is planned for how the Colorado River gets divided.

 

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