Your Pro Farmer newsletter (May 13, 2023) is now available

USDA’s May Supply & Demand Report featured updates to U.S. and global old-crop ending stocks, along with the first official look at the 2023-24 balance sheets. USDA also issued its first winter wheat production estimate. There were plenty of surprises, especially for wheat. Once traders have digested the May report data, more attention will turn to weather and crop progress. Corn and soybean planting are both running ahead of average, with the only struggles in the far northern states. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says the transition to El Niño is likely to happen sometime in the May to June period, though World Weather says El Niños don’t typically have much summer influence, especially in the year of establishment. But the strongly negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index could lead to some ridging of high pressure over the Central Plains and western Corn Belt during summer. The Supreme Court upheld California’s Prop 12 law in a major blow to the U.S. hog industry and ag sector. On the economic front, traders are betting even more strongly on a Fed pause after April inflation data eased to a two-year low. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can download here.