Market Snapshot | May 12, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are trading lower ahead of USDA’s reports at 11 a.m. CT.
• Traders expect USDA’s Supply & Demand Report to show 2022-23 ending stocks at 1.366 billion bu., with 2023-24 ending stocks expected to be 2.094 billion bushels.
• China is expected to import less corn in 2023-24, with a 500,000 MT (2.8%) decrease expected. Imports are forecasted at 17.5 MMT.
• July corn is trading narrowly between support at $5.77 3/4 and near-term resistance at $5.85 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 6 to 11 cents lower. July meal futures are more than $1.00 higher and July soyoil is around 60 points lower.

• Soybeans are weaker as traders await the government’s old and new-crop ending stocks forecasts.
• Traders expect old-crop ending stocks to inch up to 212 million bu., with 2023-24 ending stocks expected to be 293 million bushels.
• After rain across much of the Midwest into Saturday a drier weather pattern will occur Sunday through May 26, allowing aggressive planting. The drier conditions will increase the need for greater rain in late May and early June to ensure soil moisture remains favorable, according to World Weather Inc.
• China is expected to import fewer soybeans in 2023-24, with the ag ministry indicating a 980,000 MT (1%) decrease to 94.22 MMT.
• July soybeans were turned back by resistance at the 10-day moving average of $14.16 1/4. Initial support lies at $13.89 1/4.

SRW wheat is mostly 4 to 5 cents higher, while HRW is mostly 7 to 9 cents higher. HRS wheat is 1 to 2 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are posting mild corrective gains despite a stronger U.S. dollar and mixed sentiments around the Black Sea grain deal.
• Traders expect USDA to increase old-crop wheat ending stocks to 603 million bu. and peg 2023-24 ending stocks at 602 million bushels. The winter wheat crop is expected to be estimated at 1.23 billion bushels.
• Turkey says a deal to extend the Black Sea grain deal could be nearing, though Russia stated there was nothing new to report after two days of talks between Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish and United Nations officials. As has been the case in the past, negotiations will go down to the 11^th hour ahead of the May 18 deadline.
• July SRW wheat poked above the 10-day moving average of $6.37 1/2 with additional resistance standing at $6.46 1/4. Initial support lies at $6.21 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are working steadily higher.

• Live cattle are moderately higher despite lower cash prices.
• After some light trade at steady/firmer prices in the Midwest earlier in the week, cash trade settled more actively at lower prices compared with last week on Thursday.
• Choice boxed beef boxes fell $1.15 to $305.72 on Thursday, while Select rose 4 cents to $284.58, taking the Choice/Select spread to $21.14. Movement totaled 128 loads on the day, the third straight strong daily load count.
• June live cattle are trading narrowly between resistance at the 20-day moving average of $163.79 and support at the 10-day moving average of $162.94.

Lean hogs are posting losses at midmorning.

• May hogs are mildly firmer ahead of their expiration today. Deferred futures are lower despite firming cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is up 44 cents to $75.40 as of May 10, extending the near three-week steady climb. Though minor daily gains have limited traders’ willingness to increase long positions.
• The pork cutout value rose $1.48 on Thursday to $83.22, despite an over $10 drop in hams. Movement slowed to 271.8 loads. Packers are struggling to get the pork cutout above the low-$80 area given supplies are stronger than demand.
• June lean hogs are holding above initial support of $82.88, while resistance stands at $85.38.