Market Snapshot | April 26, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are lower amid followthorugh selling and persisting weakness in crude oil futures.
  • U.S. planting and emergence will be slowed this week due to cool, showery weather, though warming is expected late in the first week of May, which will stimulate more aggressive fieldwork.
  • Ethanol production in week ended April 21 averaged 967,000 barrels per day (bpd), a 57,000-bpd decrease from the previous week, but up 0.4% from the same week last year. Stocks fell 987,000 barrels to 24.306 million barrels – the lowest since the week ended Jan. 13. 
  • United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is scheduled to travel to Washington today to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and members of Congress, where the War in Ukraine and Black Sea grain deal will be discussed.
  • May corn is trading mostly above the 40-day moving average of $6.44 1/4 after trading as low as $6.43. Additional support is at $6.41, while initial resistance remains at $6.52 1/2.

Soybeans are unchanged to 2 cents higher, while May meal futures are more than $7.00 lower. May soyoil is around 30 points higher.

  • Soybeans are tried to work higher on corrective buying but weakness in meal and corn is limiting buyer interest.
  • USDA’s Brazil ag attaché anticipates 2023-24 soybean production at 159 MMT, topping this year’s record crop. Strong demand, high prices and a favorable exchange rate were noted as justifications for the increase.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures fell overnight fourth a fourth straight session and closed at their lowest level in a month, as weak exports and rival oil prices weighed on market sentiment.
  • July soybeans are trading in the lower end of yesterday’s range. Initial resistance stands at $14.34 1/4, while support remains at $14.05 3/4.

SRW wheat is mostly 2 cents lower, while HRW is 3 to 5 cents lower. HRS wheat is 6 to 11 cents lower.

  • The wheat complex is posting losses as needed rains fall across dry HRW wheat areas, though a lower U.S. dollar is helping limit selling.
  • A significant rain event is in progress across a large swath of the HRW wheat growing region, including areas where dry conditions are the worst. The event will improve winter wheat conditions for further development, along with a notable increase in topsoil moisture, notes World Weather. 
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated earlier Moscow has seen “practically no results” from a pact with the United Nations that aimed to help Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports, and blamed Western countries for creating a deadlock. Russia continues to insist the removal obstacles on those exports, or it will deny the extension of the Black Sea deal past May 18.
  • The Romanian Agriculture Minister said earlier the European Commission will ban Ukrainian grain and oilseed imports to the country until June 5.
  • Canadian farmers intend to plant the most wheat in 22 years, according to a government report, as the war in Ukraine and drought in the U.S. tightened global supplies. It is estimated farmers will sow 27.0 million acres of wheat, up 1.6 million acres from year-ago and 700,000 more acres than traders expected.
  • July SRW wheat is trading narrowly within the previous session’s range. Resistance remains at $6.61 1/2, while initial support is at $6.52.

Live cattle are posting mild gains, while feeders are mixed.

  • Live cattle are posting light gains as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop.
  • Packers have been slow to establish initial bids, indicating active cash cattle trade won’t be seen until late this week. Cash sources are mixed in their opinions of the likely outcome. Some anticipate slightly weaker prices, while others suggest feedlots won’t sell anything below last week’s prices.
  • Choice boxed beef rose 51 cents to $307.63, while Select dropped $1.08 to $287.62, taking the Choice/Select spread to $20.01. Movement increased notably to 141 loads. Traders will monitor wholesale prices to verify if it was a short-term spike in retailer buying, or if stronger movement persists.
  • Tuesday’s Cold Storage Report showed beef stocks declined more than average during March, implying demand is adequate given tightening supplies.
  • June live cattle edged above the 10-day moving average of $164.41, with $164.96 serving as additional resistance. Initial support remains at$163.62.

Lean hogs are slightly lower at midsession.

  • Lean hogs are experiencing mild losses following three straight higher closes.
  • The CME lean hog index rose 2 cents to $71.20 as of April 24, though it gives little reason for traders to excited about, but as hog supplies are stronger than USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report indicated, the cash market will bottom at some point and start a seasonal increase to the summertime high.
  • The pork cutout value fell 27 cents on Tuesday to $78.41, led lower by over $2 drops in bellies and picnics, though movement was solid at 403.3 loads. The increase in movement is the first sign prices might be low enough to encourage active retailer buying.
  • The Cold Storage Report data showed pork stocks rose contra-seasonally in March, suggesting demand isn’t keeping pace with supplies.
  • June lean hogs are hovering around the 10-day moving average of $86.485 and initial support of $86.36. Initial resistance stands near $87.91.
 

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