Market Snapshot | April 10, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is mostly 2 to 6 cents higher, with old-crop leading gains.  

  • Corn is notching corrective gains despite a stronger U.S. dollar and improved weather through much of the Midwest.
  • Russia threatened on Friday to bypass the UN-brokered grain deal unless obstacles to its agricultural exports were removed, while talks in Turkey agreed removing barriers was a necessary condition to extending the agreement beyond next month.
  • World Weather Inc. warmer, drier conditions will be seen across the central U.S. this week. The forecasters predicts cooler air for the U.S. Midwest and a part of the Great Plains, Delta and southeastern states next week, with frost and freezes possible. Though the forecaster notes it’s too soon to forecast the intensity or breadth of the cold air mass.
  • The Red River Basin of the north will see increasing snow melt this week and flooding is likely, notes World Weather.
  • USDA reported corn export inspections of 805,167 MT (31.7 million bu.) in week ended April 6, which were down 293,294 MT from the previous week and near the lower end of the pre-report range of 600,000 MT and 1.3 MMT.
  • May corn is pivoting mostly around the 40-day moving average of $6.46 1/4, with resistance standing at $6.50 and initial support at the 20-day moving average of $6.40 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly a penny to 2 cents higher, while May meal futures are marginally lower. May soyoil is around 60 points higher.

  • Front-month soybeans are posting mild corrective gains as traders position ahead of USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand updates.
  • Brazilian farmers have harvested 82% of the soybean area for 2022-23 through last Thursday, according to AgRural, which was up 6% from the previous week, but slightly behind last year’s pace of 84% by the same period.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures closed slightly higher, ending a three-day string of losses after a report showed a sharp drop in stocks last month, but weak exports in week ended April 10 capped gains.
  • USDA reported soybean export inspections of 669,566 MT (24.6 million bu.) in week ended April 6, which were up 165,666 MT from the previous week and near the top-end of the pre-report range of 375,000 and 800,000 MT.
  • May soybeans are trading inside the lower range of the previous session, with resistance at the 40-day moving average of $14.99 1/2 and support at the 20-day moving average of $14.79 3/4.

SRW wheat is 3 to 5 cents higher, while HRW is mostly around a dime higher. HRS wheat is mostly 4 to 5 cents higher.

  • SRW wheat is trading slightly higher as tensions rise around the extension of the Black Sea grain deal.
  • U.S. HRW wheat areas will continue to get restricted precip during the next 10 days, according to World Weather.
  • Imports of Ukrainian grain to Poland will be temporarily halted to mitigate impact on prices, though transit will still be allowed, according to Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus on Friday.
  • USDA reported export inspections of 335,444 MT (12.3 million bu.) for week ended April 6, which were up 166,901 MT from the previous week and near mid-range of the pre-report estimates ranging from 150,000 to 500,000 MT.
  • May SRW wheat has pushed above resistance of $6.83 1/4 for the second straight session, with the near convergence of the 20- and 10-day moving averages around $6.90 serving as solid resistance. Support continues at $6.69 1/2.

Live cattle are posting slight gains while feeders are narrowly mixed.

  • Nearby live cattle are trading cautiously higher as traders anticipate possible profit-taking after last week’s gap higher.
  • Firmer cash prices are expected to persist this week, though traders remain cautious with futures given the surge in cash prices over the past two weeks.
  • Choice boxed beef continued higher on Friday with a $1.33 gain to $290.98, while Select fell 85 cents to $275.78, taking the Choice/Select spread to $15.20. Movement on the day was 83 loads.
  • June live cattle have edged as high as $163.45, pushing above initial resistance at $163.575, while $162.28 is initial support.

Lean hogs are notching slight gains at midsession.

  • Lean hogs are working higher despite persisting weakness in the cash market.
  • The CME lean hog index is down another 46 cents, extending the decline to $72.88 as of March 6. The cash index has dropped $7.13 from the March peak and is only 77 cents above the January low.
  • The pork cutout value dropped 78 cents on Friday to $77.90, led by a near $7 loss in bellies. Movement totaled 200 loads for the day.
  • June lean hogs a trading narrowly within the previous session’s range, initial resistance remains near $89.57 while support continues around $86.92.
 

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