Market Snapshot | March 31, 2023

Corn is mostly a 3 to 5 cents higher.

Nearby corn is taking spillover strength from soybeans ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports at 11 a.m. CT.
A Reuters survey indicates analysts expect corn planting intentions of 90.880 million acres and March 1 stocks to be 7.470 billion bushels. March 1 stocks have historically been the price driver for corn.
Two strong storm systems will impact the Midwest through Wednesday before a period of drier weather Thursday through April 14 allows for steady improvements in field conditions, according to World Weather Inc. Flooding will be a concern in the Red River valley and portions of the upper Midwest.
May corn is trading narrowly, with the 50-day moving average of $6.54 1/2 serving as initial resistance, while initial support lies at $6.46 3/4.

Soybeans are around 12 to 15 cents higher, while May meal futures are modestly lower. May soyoil is around 125 points higher.

Soybeans are pushing higher on reports of worse-than-expected soybean quality and yields in Argentina and strength in the soyoil market.
Traders are awaiting USDA’s Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports, with analysts expecting soybean planting intentions of 88.242 million acres and March 1 stocks at 1.742 billion bushels. Historically, acreage has had a greater influence in post-report price moves in soybean futures.
Soybean harvest has started in Argentina with the first results pointing to worse-than-expected yields in the country’s core agricultural area, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange.
Argentina’s government is planning a new “soy dollar” preferential exchange rate for farm exports, according to a government spokesperson, as the major grains producer looks to spur shipments amid a severely drought-stricken harvest.
May soybeans have extended as high as $14.91 3/4, pushing above the 100-day moving average for the first time since March 21, though the level continues to serve as resistance. Initial support lies around $14.69.

SRW wheat is mostly 1 to 2 cents higher, while HRW posts 7- to 9-cent gains. HRS wheat futures are around a nickel higher.

A Reuters survey indicates traders are expecting all wheat acreage to be 47.701 million acres and other spring wheat acreage of 11.801 million acres in USDA’s Prospective Planting Report.
March 1 wheat stocks are expected to be 934 million bushels.
World Weather notes the heart of the U.S. HRW wheat region will not receive much moisture in the next 10 days. Northern HRW areas will receive beneficial precip through the middle of next week.
May SRW wheat dipped below initial support of $6.85 before rebounding. Additional support is at $6.77 3/4. Initial resistance remains at $7.04 3/4.

Live cattle are up modestly, while feeders are moderately higher at midmorning.

Nearby live cattle are higher on a strengthening cash market and persisting bullish fundamentals.
Cash cattle traded at $167 in the Southern Plains and as high as $170 in the northern market Thursday — up notably from last week’s average of $164.41.
Wholesale beef fell on Thursday with a $1.09 drop in Choice to $279.20 and a 44 cent decline in Select to $268.46. Movement totaled 104 loads.
June live cattle have reached as high as $168.20, a new contract high.

Lean hogs are posting mild gains despite weakening cash fundamentals.
The CME lean hog index is down another 23 cents to $75.77 as of March 29, extending the recent drop for the nineth straight day. The cash index is down $4.24 from its mid-March peak but still $3.66 off the January low.
The pork cutout value dropped $1.47 on Thursday to $78.79, with a decline in all cuts except ribs, which rose by nearly $5.50. Movement slowed to 285.9 loads despite the price weakness.
USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the March 1 U.S. hog herd at 72.86 million head, up 171,000 head (.02%) from year-ago, the breeding herd at 6.127 million head, up 0.5%, and the market hog inventory rose 0.2%. Figures were in line with the average pre-report estimates.
June lean hogs are trading within initial resistance of $92.24 and initial support around $90.74.

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