Market Snapshot | February 10, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 4 to 7 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are higher on spillover from surging SRW wheat futures and a rally in crude oil back towards $80.00 per barrel.
• The new U.S. agriculture trade chief has given Mexico until Feb. 14 to respond to a U.S. request to explain the science behind Mexico’s planned bans on genetically modified corn and glyphosate herbicide, according to Reuters.
• Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has proposed increasing the minimal tonnage of ships which carry grain and vegetable oil from the country via a grain corridor, aiming to boost exports despite opposition from Russia.
• Frequent rains in Brazil’s key growing areas have delayed planting of the safrinha (second) corn crop. Around two-thirds of the crop will be planted outside the ideal window of mid-February, states South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier.
• March corn has traded back above the 10-, and 20- and 100-day moving averages, with initial resistance at $6.84 3/4. Initial support lies near the 40-day moving average of $6.69 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 6 to 9 cents higher in old-crop contracts, while new-crop is up around 5 cents higher. March meal futures are modestly lower, and March soyoil is up around 100 points.

• Soybeans are marking strong gains as Argentine production forecasts continue to be cut and the near-term weather isn’t forecast to be as wet as previously expected.
• World Weather Inc. notes today’s forecast is drier in Argentina for Saturday through Thursday than what was earlier advertised.
• The Beunos Aires Grains Exchange on Thursday further cut its estimate for Argentine soybean production to 38 MMT, down from the previous estimate of 41 MMT.
• Some fieldwork is expected to advance in Brazil around rains, especially though Monday when rain is limited, but longer stretches of dry weather are needed.
• Malaysian palm oil fell as much as 3% overnight, with losses in rival vegetable oils and higher January inventories weighing on futures.
• March soybeans rose above the 10-day moving average of $15.26 3/4 and resistance at $15.31 1/4. Additional resistance is near $15.43 1/2, while support remains at $15.09 1/2. 

SRW wheat futures are 22 to 27 cents higher, with HRW mostly 25 to 30 cents higher. Spring wheat is 10 to 12 cents higher.

• Winter wheat futures are climbing higher as tensions around the Black Sea export deal reignite trade focus.
• Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations said today that Moscow has not been able to export any grain as a part of the Black Sea grain deal struck between Russia and Ukraine last year due to Western obstacles.
• Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has proposed increasing the minimal tonnage of ships which carry grain and vegetable oil from the country via a grain corridor, aiming to boost exports despite opposition from Russia.
• U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will continue to precipitation of significance in the west through the weekend. There is some potential for rain and snow in the western Plains early next week, though World Weather Inc. maintains low confidence in the occurrence.
• March SRW futures have traded as high as $7.90, with the Dec. 30 high of $7.99 serving as resistance. Support lies around the 40-day moving average of $7.54 1/2.

Live cattle are slightly higher while feeders are mostly lower.

• Live cattle are pivoting around unchanged despite supportive cash fundamentals and a bullish longer-term outlook.
• Cash cattle trade developed late Thursday, with prices as much as $4 higher in the northern market. Packers drew out cash cattle negotiations as long as possible, hoping feedlots would sell around steady prices, though feedlots prevailed.
• Wholesale beef prices also firmed with a $2.09 increase in Choice and 85 cent bump in Select, taking the Choice/Select spread to $15.28.
• Feeders have turned lower due to strength in the corn market.
• April live cattle are trading narrowly within the previous session’s range, within initial resistance remaining near $161.28 and initial support near $160.51.

Hog futures are mixed with summer-month contracts trading modestly lower.

• February lean hog futures are slightly higher on additional indications the cash market has posted a seasonal low.
• The CME lean hog index is up 5 cents to $73.80 as of Feb. 8, which is the sixth straight daily gain. The index has been up 10 of the last 12 days and is now $1.69 above its January low.
• The pork cutout value firmed $1.10 to $80.39 on Thursday and movement increased to 318.2 loads.
• Bigger-than-normal premiums built into spring and summer-months futures may be limiting buyer interest. April hogs are around $10 above the cash index, while the June contract hold about a $28 premium.
• April lean hogs are choppy, trading within the previous session’s range, between resistance around 84.84 and support of $80.56.