Modest changes expected in Wednesday's S&D Report

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USDA is expected to make minor adjustments to its U.S. balance sheets in Wednesday’s Supply & Demand Report. Focus will be on shifts in usage forecasts for 2022-23, especially for corn as both exports and ethanol use could be lowered. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2022-23

Average est.

1.266

Range

1.200 – 1.335

USDA January

1.242

USDA 2021-22

1.377

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2022-23

Average est.

211

Range

176 - 230

USDA January

210

USDA 2021-22

274

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2022-23

Average est.

576

Range

557 - 612

USDA January

567

USDA 2021-22

600

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2022-23

Average est.

4.08

Range

3.90 – 4.40

USDA January

4.20

USDA 2021-22

3.75

 

The bigger focus for traders in Wednesday’s reports will be any changes to USDA’s global production forecasts and the impact that has on world ending stocks. Traders are expecting USDA to lower its Argentine corn and soybean crop forecasts, with little change anticipated for the Brazilian projections.

Expectations for Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

294.71

Range

NA

292.50 – 297.80

USDA January

305.95

296.42

 

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

102.03

Range

NA

100.00 – 105.50

USDA January

98.22

103.52

 

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

268.56

Range

NA

266.00 – 270.20

USDA January

276.82

268.39

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

90.06

Range

NA

89.20 – 91.00

USDA January

85.34

89.93

 

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