Market Snapshot | January 30, 2023

Corn futures are mixed with old crop futures unchanged to a penny lower and new-crop is 1 to 2 cents higher.

Corn futures are trading mostly lower after firmer overnight trade as crude oil futures dip below $80.00 per barrel.
USDA reported a daily corn export sale to Japan of 112,000 MT for 2022-23.
The area sown to corn in Ukraine could fall by 30% to 35% in 2023 as farmers face a shortage of money and electricity blackouts, according to the Ukrainian agriculture producer’s union.
Safrinha corn plantings are estimated to be 6% complete, a 3.8% increase on the week as frequent rains have fallen in Brazil. This compares to 26.7% last year is close to the lowest level recorded over the past five years and is 11.6% below the five-year average.
Corn export inspections for week ended Jan. 26 totaled 527,932 MT (20.8 million bu.), which was down 200,860 MT from the previous week and below the expected range of 600,000 to 950,000 MT.
March corn has traded as high as $6.87 1/2, where initial resistance stands, while initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $6.78 1/4.

Soybeans are around 15 to 20 cents higher, while March meal futures are more than $8.00 higher and March soyoil is nearly 80 points firmer.

Soybeans surged overnight as drought concerns in Argentina resurface as dry weather returns this week and China returns to work following last week’s Lunar New Year holiday.
Much of Brazil outside of northeastern and some far southern areas will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks that will bring enough rain to support crop development while further delaying soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting.
Drying is advertised in much of Argentina through Tuesday except in the far western part of the country, according to World Weather Inc.
Soybean harvest in Mato Grasso, Brazil’s largest producing state, reached an estimated completion of 13.6% on Friday, a 7.7% increase on the week. Despite the notable increase, harvest pace is 18.2% slower than the previous year.
Soybean export inspections for week ended Jan. 26 totaled 1.855 MMT (68.2 million bu.), which was a 16,576-MT increase from the previous week and within pre-report estimates between 900,000 MT and 1.9 MMT.
March soybeans have traded as high as $15.35 1/2, where initial resistance stands. First support lies at the 10-day moving average near $15.12 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents higher, with HRW and HRS marking gains in the 5- to 8-cent range.

Winter wheat futures are trading higher as traders assess cold weather conditions in the U.S. Plains along with potential escalations in the Russia/Ukraine war.
An artic air mass has settled into hard red winter wheat growing areas, though concerns for winterkill are low, according to World Weather. Snowcover should be sufficient to avoid major damage in the coldest areas.
Ukraine has exported nearly 26.3 MMT of grain so far in the 2022-23 season, which is down 37.9 MMT shipped by the same period last year, according to the agriculture ministry.
Pakistan is facing a crisis in its flour supply, with an estimated deficit of 2.37 MMT, with the situation growing more intense as wheat flour prices have doubled in some regions amid panic buying.
Wheat export inspections for week ended Jan. 26 revealed 445,433 MT (16.4 million bu.) inspected for export, which was up 96,040 MT from the previous week and towards the high end of pre-report estimates ranging from 275,000 to 475,000 MT.
March SRW wheat is trading slightly higher after reaching as high as $7.62 1/2 overnight. Initial resistance is at $7.63, while first support lies at the 20-day moving average of $7.46.

Live cattle are surging higher, while feeders are posting moderate gains.

Live cattle futures are extending last week’s gains as traders expect a bullish week for cash cattle trade.
Packers began raising cash cattle prices late Friday, though traders will have to wait until later today to get the official cash price and sales volume for last week.
Packers will likely need to be more aggressive in cash cattle purchases after having drug their feet over the past month, though the coming calendar change may limit their aggressiveness in the negotiated market this week.
Wholesale beef prices have begun their seasonal decline, with Choice down 99 cents and Select 94 cents lower on Friday.
February live cattle have traded as high as $158.40 after gapping higher to begin the session. Initial resistance stands near $158.825, while first support lies at the 20-day moving average around $157.30.

Hog futures are mostly firmer at midmorning.

February lean hog futures are modestly lower despite signs the cash index has posted a seasonal low.
The CME lean hog index is 12 cents higher to $72.64 (as of Jan. 26) in its third straight daily increase. This is the first time since Dec. 12-14 for a consecutive, three-day increase.
February lean hogs ended Friday $3.235 above today’s cash quote, while April hogs finished at a $13.81 premium. Traders are narrowing the premium in the lead-month contract and extending it in the April contract.
Pork cutout value fell $1.21 on Friday, with movements active at 323.5 loads.
February lean hogs have traded as low as $75.15, below initial support around $75.44. Additional support lies near $75.00, while initial resistance is at $76.69.

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