First Thing Today | January 27, 2023

Good morning!

Quiet overnight trade... Corn and soybeans posted two-sided trade in light overnight price action, while wheat faded. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading narrowly mixed, soybeans are fractionally to 2 cents higher, SRW wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower, HRW wheat is 4 to 6 cents lower and HRS wheat is 2 to 4 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures are more than $1.00 higher and the U.S. dollar index is modestly firmer this morning.

Ukraine grain shipments via export deal top 18 MMT... As of Jan. 26, the total tonnage of grain and other foodstuffs exported from three Ukrainian ports via the Black Sea grain deal stood at 18.4 MMT, according to the Joint Coordination Center. A total of 1,354 voyages – 678 inbound and 676 outbound – have been inspected.

U.S. working to speed up Black Sea grain, fertilizer exports... U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said Washington is working to increase exports of Russian and Ukrainian grains and fertilizers to the countries in dire need under the Black Sea export initiative. “We are working at every level with the World Food Program as you know to speed both food and fertilizer to countries that would normally be consumers of Ukraine and, frankly, Russia’s output to ensure that they can plant this year,” Nuland said at hearings of the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. “Secretary [Antony] Blinken is particularly focused on ensuring that we are working on this problem not just for today but for tomorrow,” she said.

Chinese travel during Lunar New Year holiday up sharply... China’s domestic tourism trips jumped 23.1% from the same period last year during the first week of the Lunar New Year celebration. But travel was still only 88.6% of the same period in 2019 – prior to the Covid pandemic.

U.S., EU discussing Russian oil price cap... Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. and European Union were in the middle of discussions on a Russian crude oil price cap. She hoped the two sides would reach an agreement by Feb. 5.

Russia raises fertilizer export quota... Russia said on Friday it had increased export quotas for mineral fertilizers by nearly 500,000 MT. The quotas will be valid until May 31.

Russia raises wheat export tax... Russia’s wheat export tax for Feb. 1-7 will be 4,365.3 rubles ($62.98) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $308.80. That’s up from a rate of 4,283.2 rubles per metric ton the previous week.

Malaysia, Indonesia to discuss crude palm oil benchmark pricing... Malaysia and Indonesia will hold a meeting to discuss issues related to crude palm oil (CPO) benchmark price, according to Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister and Plantation and Commodities Minister Fadillah Yusof. Fadillah said the matter needs to be discussed jointly as Indonesia’s plans will affect the entire oil palm industry chain, not just Malaysia, but also globally. Previously, Indonesian Trade Minister Zulkifli Hasan said his country plans to establish its CPO benchmark price before June and will no longer depend on Malaysia for pricing.

Thompson makes House ag panel moves... House Ag Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) added a 28th Republican member, Randy Feenstra of Iowa. Feenstra won a seat on Ways and Means this year and had to get a waiver to stay on the Ag Committee. Democrats will have 24 members on the panel. Thompson reorganized the Ag Committee panels. Forestry will get its own panel, and nutrition programs now fall under the subcommittee that oversees specialty crop programs and international food aid. Livestock, dairy and poultry are under a single subcommittee. Livestock issues had previously been grouped with foreign agriculture.

Regan considering stepping down from EPA leadership... EPA Administrator Michael Regan is considering stepping down, Reuters reported, citing four unidentified people familiar with the matter. A final decision has not been made nor are plans imminent. EPA said Regan had no plans to depart. “The administrator doesn’t have any plans to step down. He’s committed to continuing to advance President Biden’s historic climate and environmental agenda,” said Maria Michalos, an EPA spokesperson and one of Regan’s top aides.

Cash cattle standoff continues... Some light cash cattle sales were reported in Iowa in the $152 to $153 range on Thursday. Otherwise, cash cattle activity was quiet, with packers trying to buy animals $1 or more lower than last week while feedlots wanted steady or better prices. These recent extended cash negotiations have played out in packers’ favor but they are thought to be short-bought on near-term slaughter needs after weeks of light purchases.

Back-to-back gains in cash hog index... The CME lean hog index is 20 cents higher (as of Jan. 25) after rising 22 cents yesterday. This could signal a seasonal low is in the works, but with February lean hog futures more than $4.50 above the cash index as of Thursday’s close, traders will likely want to see more proof before actively building the premium. As was the case Thursday, buyer interest may be greater in deferred contracts, as the cash market will eventually embark on an extended seasonal climb.

Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 68,000 MT of feed wheat likely to be sourced from Australia.

See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.

Today’s reports

• 2:00 p.m. Livestock and Meat Domestic Data — ERS
• 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
• 2:00 p.m. Peanut Stocks and Processing — NASS
• 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC