Market Snapshot | January 26, 2023

Corn futures are trading mostly 5 to 7 cents higher at midmorning.

Corn futures are solidly higher amid spillover gains from the wheat and soy complex, along with crude oil strength.
USDA reported net corn sales of 910,400 MT in week ended Jan. 19 for 2022-23, which was a 20% drop from the previous week, but a 46% increase from the four-week average. Sales were mid-range compared to pre-report estimates between 600,000 MT and 1.4 MMT.
World Weather Inc. notes most of Argentina still has low subsoil moisture and until that gets fixed the risk of returning dryness will remain.
Delays in exporting Ukrainian corn through the Black Sea grain corridor and limited supplies from European origins, means buyers are looking at Russian corn as a viable supply option, according to Agricensus.
USDA’s attaché in Beijing reports China is likely to buy a “substantial amount” of Brazilian corn in 2022-23.
March corn fell below the 10- and 100-day moving averages at $6.77 and $6.74 1/2, respectively, before rebounding. Those levels will serve as solid support. The contract has traded as high as $6.84 1/2, above initial resistance at $6.83 3/4. Next resistance is at $6.85 and $6.88 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 8 to 14 cents higher, while March meal futures are around $6.00 higher and March soyoil up about 35 points.

Soybeans are surging higher amid short covering after futures on Wednesday fell to their lowest point since Jan. 10 before rebounding.
Brazil weather is expected to remain dry biased in the south over the next several days while rain frequency and intensity ramps up once again in center-west and center-south areas, according to World Weather. Fieldwork will advance, but rain frequency will remain too great for aggressive harvesting.
USDA reported a daily export sale of 106,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year.
USDA reported net sales soybean of 1.146 MMT for week ended Jan. 19 for 2022-23, an increase of 16% over the previous week and 53% from the four-week average. Sales were near the top of the expected range of 600,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Thursday as traders sought bargains after prices hit a more than six-week low in the previous session.
March soybeans traded as low as $15.00 where initial support lies.The contract has traded as high as $15.20 1/4, just below resistance at $15.21 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are surging higher, led by 15- to 18-cent gains in HRW.

Wheat futures are rising for the third straight session as traders attempt to grasp the position of global supply.
U.S. hard red winter wheat country will warm up over the next few days, though bitter cold will be back late this weekend and especially early next week, though World Weather believes snow will remain on the ground in areas that will be vulnerable to the coldest temperatures.
USDA officials say Russia’s official wheat crop estimate is “not feasible,” as the Chairman of the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board told Argus Media’s Paris grain Conference the agency’s analysis of weather and previous crops does not support such high crop estimates.
USDA reported net wheat sales of 500,400 MT in week ended Jan. 19 for 2022-23, which was up 6% from the previous week and 84% from the previous four-week average. Sales topped the expected range of 150,000 to 500,000 MT.
March SRW wheat edged above the 20- and 40-day moving averages, with next resistance at $7.58 1/2. Initial support lies near $7.35.

Live cattle are slightly lower with feeders moderately lower at midsession.

Live cattle futures are being pressured by USDA’s Cold Storage data. Traders are also waiting for cash trade to emerge.
Wednesday’s Cold Storage Report showed beef stocks rose more than average during December, which is spurring demand concerns.
Packers remain steadfast in their efforts to buy cattle at cheaper prices, though feedlots continue to show no urgency to move cattle at less than steady levels.
Cash sources anticipate trade to pick up at roughly steady prices with week-ago as packers are thought to be short-bought on near-term slaughter needs, albeit the recent trend has been for prices to fall short of expectations.
Choice cutout values dropped $1.36 on Wednesday to $268.28, while Select fell 59 cents to $251.80, with movement at 137 loads on the day.
USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 25,100 MT for week ended Jan. 19 for 2023.
February live cattle are traded as low as $156.90, dipping below the 10- and 20-day moving averages, with support lying near $156.84. Initial resistance remains near $157.92.

Hog futures are posting slight losses at midsession.

Lean hogs edged lower following bearish Cold Storage data as traders wait on a seasonal low to form in the cash market.
The CME lean hog index is 22 cents higher to $72.32 (as of Jan. 24), although a modest increase, it’s the first rise since Dec. 27 and may indicate that a seasonal low is near.
February lean hog futures ended Wednesday at a $4.48 premium to today’s cash quote, which is slightly more than the five-year average gain of $4.01 from now until Feb. 16 when the contract is cash settled. Traders are narrowing that premium this morning.
Pork cutout values fell 95 cents to $79.11, which was led by a near $4.00 drop in bellies.
The Cold Storage Report revealed pork stocks rose in December versus the typical modest drawdown in inventories during the month.
USDA reported weekly pork export sales of 44,700 MT for week ended Jan. 19 for 2023.
February lean hog traded as low as $75.60, just below initial support near $75.68. Initial resistance continues to stand at the 10-day moving average of $75.51.

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