Market Snapshot | January 24, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 5 to 6 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are rebounding following Monday’s selloff on spillover strength from wheat, despite weakening crude oil futures.
• USDA reported a daily export sale of 130,000 MT to “unknown destinations” for the 2022-23 marketing year.
• U.S. farm officials raised “grave concerns” over Mexico’s agricultural biotechnology policies in meetings with their Mexican counterparts on Monday.
• Brazil’s corn exports reached 4.2 MMT through the third week of the month, well above the 2.7 MMT volume exported in January last year, according to official customs data.
• March corn rose back above the 10-, 20- and 100-day moving averages. Support is at the 40-day moving average near $6.61 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher, while March meal futures are modestly lower and March soyoil is about 80 points lower.

• Soybeans are mildly higher following Monday’s selloff, though the contract has moved well off session highs.
• Brazil’s soybean exports remained slow and totaled 570,459 MT in the first three weeks of January, while 2.4 MT were shipped in January last year.
• World Weather Inc. notes today’s forecast is drier through the next week for Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, than what was advertised Monday. Some crops may become stressed by hot and dry conditions as recent moisture is lost to evaporation before rain returns Feb. 1-3.
• March soybeans will find initial support at the 40-day moving average around $14.86. First resistance stands at $15.00 and then Monday’s gap from $15.03 to $15.04.

Winter futures are sharply higher, with 14 to 18 gains in HRW leading the complex higher.

• Wheat futures are seeing bargain and corrective buying after touching 16-month lows in the previous session, though gains are limited by increased moisture prospects in the U.S. plains.
• World Weather notes snow and rain will fall from West Texas and the Texas Panhandle across Oklahoma and northern Texas today, resulting in a welcome boost in topsoil moisture and winter wheat crop conditions.
• Waves of snow will move across the Northern Plains and northern Midwest during the coming week, which will help protect winter crops from bitter cold temperatures, especially in Montana and South Dakota where snow free conditions have been present for a while, said the forecaster.
• March SRW wheat futures are trading within the previous session’s range, with the previous session’s low of $7.12 1/2 serving as initial support. Initial resistance is at the 10-day moving average near $7.38.

Live cattle are lower in narrow trade, with feeders also under pressure at midsession.

• Live cattle futures are posting mild losses as traders prepare for another lengthy standoff in cash cattle negotiations.
• A third round of winter storms is hitting the Plains, causing further stress to cattle in feedlots.
• Packers are still trying to restrict paying higher money for cash cattle in an attempt to improve margins. Cash sources expect steady to firmer cash prices compared to last week’s $155.32 average, though cash trade may not occur until late in the week.
• Choice cutout values dropped 28 cents on Monday to $271.44, while Select dropped $1.94 to $254.49, with a spread of $16.95.
• Feeder cattle are being pressured by strength in corn.
• February live cattle remain within the previous session’s range, with initial support near $156.58 while initial resistance is around the 40-day moving average of $156.44.

Hog futures lower at midmorning.

• Lean hogs are slightly lower on persisting cash market weakness.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 52 cents to $72.13 (as of Jan. 20), extending the seasonal decline from early August of last year to more than $50.00.
• With ample market-ready supplies, packers are focused on improving margins ahead of a seasonal firming of cash prices into mid-summer.
• The pork cutout value rose 93 cents on Monday to $80.92 but that’s $15.00 below last year at this time.
• February lean hog futures are trading narrowly, within the previous session’s range. Initial support lies near $77.03, while initial resistance stands around $78.16.