Market Snapshot | January 19, 2023

Corn futures are mixed, with the March contract about a penny higher.

Corn is chopping on either side of unchanged in directionless trade.
USDA reported a daily sale to Mexico for 195,000 MT for delivery during the 2022-23 marketing year.
Due to Monday’s government holiday, export sales data for week ended Jan. 12 will be released Friday morning.
World Weather, Inc. maintains a bias of expected relief in Argentina during the next 10 days to two weeks, with expected improvements in late-season corn, sorghum and soybeans.
Ethanol production rose from the previous week by 65,000 barrels per day (bpd) in week ended Jan. 13 to an average of 1.008 million bpd, though that was 4.3% below the same week last year. Ethanol stocks fell 400,000 barrels from a week ago.
March corn remains within the previous session’s range. Initial support lies at $6.76 1/2, while first resistance stands at $6.87 1/4.

Soybeans are 7 to 12 cents lower, while March meal futures are around $3.50 lower and March soyoil is about 120 points lower.

Soybeans are lower on expectations of increased chances of precipitation in Argentina over the next 10 days to two weeks. The rains will help later-planted soybeans.
World Weather Inc. notes that some of the wettest areas in Brazil will remain wet, while other areas will see enough sunshine to improve crop and harvest conditions. Though far southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul mostly) will not see a good distribution of rain for a while.
Malaysian palm oil prices are set to fall for the first time in three years in 2023 amid a mild recovery in production but will likely remain above pre-pandemic levels as Indonesian policies limit global supply.
Russia’s ag ministry proposed raining export tariffs on soybeans from 20% to 50% to stimulate domestic processing capacity in the country’s Far East region, according to Reuters.
March soybeans are trading narrowly within the previous session’s range. Initial support lies at $15.07 1/2, while initial resistance stands at Wednesday’s high of $15.48 1/2.

Winter futures are higher, led by 3- to 7-cent gains in spring wheat.

Winter wheat futures are inching higher amid corrective buying.
There is some global supply uncertainty as ships remain backlogged in Turkey. The UN on Wednesday called out inefficiencies in the operation of a deal allowing Black Sea grain exports, as a backlog of more than 100 ships in Turkish waters are waiting on travel approval and inspections.
Additional storminess is likely in the central U.S. Plains late Friday into the weekend, with some heavy snowfall expected in western Kansas, though the southwestern Plains will not get much precipitation over the next two weeks, according to World Weather, Inc.
Russia’s ag ministry said it expects the country to export 55 MMT to 60 MMT of grain in the 2022-23 season and has no plans to lower the grain export quota. This comes after President Vladimir Putin suggested earlier in the week that Russia might limit exports to ensure ample domestic supplies.
March SRW futures are trading above the 10-day moving average, with initial resistance standing at $7.55. First support lies at $7.35.

Live cattle and feeders are posting moderate to heavy losses at midsession.

Live cattle futures are trading lower for the third straight session.
Packers have been slow to establish cash bids this week, though those that have surfaced indicate they have little intent to pay even steady money compared to laws week.
Feedlots aren’t in any hurry to move cattle at lower prices, suggesting the bulk of this week’s cash trade will be pushed to Friday with final volumes likely being light.
February live cattle are now around $1 below last week’s average cash cattle price, signaling cash expectations may be declining.
Daily cutout values dropped $2.58 drop in Choice, with a 67-cent drop in Select on Wednesday, for a spread of $20.22.
China has lifted bans on three Brazilian meatpackers, with a written statement adding Beijing may clear another eight meatpackers to sell products after the lunar new year, according to Brazil’s ag minister. He also noted that Indonesia cleared 11 Brazilian beef plants to export to the country.
February live cattle dipped below support near $156.18, with next support lying at $155.87. First resistance is at the 10-day moving average near $157.18.

Hog futures are solidly lower at midmorning.

Lean hogs continue their downward slide as buying interest remains stalled until the cash market indicates a seasonal low.
The CME lean hog index is down another 33 cents to $73.85 (as of Jan. 17), with February lean hogs closing yesterday $3.475 above today’s cash quote.
Pork cutout value firmed 45 cents on Wednesday but remains at a two-year low at $77.89. Packers moved 338.1 loads, bringing the total volume for the week to 1253.5 loads.
Wholesale pork prices are cheap compared to beef, even as Choice beef prices have dropped over $6 since the end of last year.
February lean hog futures traded at the lowest level since Oct. 4, with initial support lying at $76.80. First resistance stands at $78.175.

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