Market Snapshot | January 3, 2023

Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midsession.

Corn futures are lower on persisting demand concerns as shipments increase from Brazil and amid pressure from outside markets.
Argentina received much-needed rainfall during the holiday weekend, offering some short-term relief to dryness, but mostly hot and dry weather are forecasted for the next 10 days, which will increase crop stress.
Ukraine exported 22.6 MMT of grain in the first half of the 2022-23 marketing year, down 29.8% from the same period last year. The total included 12.5 MMT of corn, (up 15.7%), 8.4 MMT of wheat (down 47.0%) and 1.6 MMT of barley (down 68.8%)
Brazilian corn exports 6.41 MMT last month, up from 6.06 MMT in November and 3.41 MMT last year.
Corn export inspections for week ended Dec. 29 revealed 667,010 MT (26.3 million bu.) of corn for the week, down from the previous week’s figure of 922,142.
USDA this afternoon is expected to report corn-for-ethanol use at 448.7 million bu., suggesting a marginal drop from October and 3.9% less than year-ago.
March corn has dipped as low as $6.72 1/4, after reaching its highest level since early November in the previous session.

Soybeans are 20-plus cents lower, with March soymeal more than $8.00 lower while soyoil is slightly firmer.

Soybeans weakened after climbing the past three sessions as weekend rains brought temporary relief to Argentina and conditions remain favorable in Brazil.
Brazil will continue to see favorable weather over the next two weeks, with some pockets of dryness in far southern Brazil and too-wet conditions in some northern areas. Though, overall conditions remain mostly favorable, according to World Weather Inc.
Brazil exported 2.02 MMT of soybeans in December, according to official government data, which was down 2.64 MMT from November and 2.71 MMT last year.
Malaysian palm oil futures jumped to a near five-week closing high in the first trading session of the year, underpinned by a production slowdown and tighter Indonesian supply.
Soybean export inspections for week ended Dec. 29 were reported at 1.463 MMT (53.8 million bu.), down from the previous week’s figure of 1.775 MMT
Following the close, USDA is expected to report November soybean total crush at 190 million, according to a Bloomberg survey. That would reflect a 3.5% drop from October and a 0.1% decline from year-ago.
March soybeans dropped below support at $15.08 and hit sell stops. Next support is at the psychological $15.00 mark.

Wheat futures are lower, led by 11 to 13 cent losses in HRW contracts.

Wheat futures are mildly lower on expectations of waning demand as Russia is forecast to gain global market share following a record crop.
European wheat prices started the new year in negative territory on Monday, pressured by expectations of more tough export competition from Russia, although activity remained thin as U.S. markets were closed in observance of the New Year holiday.
SovEcon, a Black Sea agricultural research firm, increased its 2022-23 Russian wheat export forecast by 200,000 MT to 44.1 MMT on Friday.
USDA’s weekly export inspections data for week ended Dec. 29 revealed 85,672 MT (3.1 million bu.) for wheat, down from the previous week’s figure of 313,707 MT.
March SRW is trading within the previous session’s range, where the contract reached its highest intraday price since Nov 30. Near-term resistance is the psychological $8.00 mark, with initial support standing at the 10-day moving average near $7.72 1/2.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are moderately to sharply lower at midmorning.

Live cattle futures are lower amid profit-taking despite expectations of a firming cash market and rising wholesale beef prices.
Packers were more aggressive than expected with cash cattle prices last week, suggesting they were short-bought on supplies after the holidays. Cash sources expect packers to be active buyers of cattle this week after light purchases the past few weeks.
Packers strengthened their margins during the final weeks of the year, now solidly in the black.
Choice cutout values rose $3.12 on Friday to $281.98, while select rose 23 cents to $250.93. Movements were light at 66 loads.
February live cattle extended Friday’s corrective losses, sinking as low as $156.70. Next support is at the 20-day moving average of $156.26. Near-term resistance is $158.62.

Hog futures are lower, led by the nearby February contract.

Nearby lean hogs continue to slump from followthrough selling after a corrective pullback the final three days last week as buyer interest remains limited until traders are convinced a seasonal cash low is in place.
February lean hog futures ended Friday $7.51 above the CME lean hog index, which is down 55 cents to $80.19 (as of Dec. 29).
Pork cutout values rose 2 cents on Friday to $87.90, led by a $1.76 increase in loins.
February lean hogs declined to $86.425. Next support is in the $86.00 area.

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