Market Snapshot | December 15, 2022

Corn futures rebounded from earlier declines stemming from U.S. dollar strength and spillover from weakness in U.S. equities and crude oil.
USDA reported net corn sales of 958,900 MT during the week ended Dec. 8, up from 691,600 MT the previous week and above trade expectations ranging from 600,000 to 900,000 MT. Top buyers included Guatemala (196,400 MT) and Mexico (170,800 MT).
USDA reported a daily sale of 101,600 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.
The Rosario Grain Exchange maintained its 2022-23 corn crop forecasts at 56 MMT.
In initial projections for 2023, Strategie Grains estimated European Union (EU) corn production to rise to 63.7 MMT, up 26% from a 15-year low of 50.5 MMT this year.
March corn is trading in a narrow range after dropping as low as $6.48 1/4, just above 10-day moving average support at $6.45 3/4.

Soybeans are 9 to 12 cents lower, January soymeal is down more than $4 and January soyoil is down around 60 points.

The soy complex is lower as bearish outside markets burden ag commodities, offsetting stronger than expected exports.
USDA reported net weekly soybean sales totaling 2.943 MMT, up sharply from 1.72 MMT the previous week and well-above expectations ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 MMT. China led buyers at 1.253 MMT, including 197,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations” and decreases of 184,200.
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) today are expected to report November soybean crush totaled 181.5 million bu., according to a Reuters survey. That would be down 1.6% from October but up 1.1% from last year and a new record for the month. Soyoil stocks are expected to total 1.619 billion pounds.
Beneficial, but mostly light, rain fell Wednesday from west-central to southeastern Argentina, World Weather said. Rain during the next two weeks “should not be great enough to prevent continued increases in crop stress in much of Argentina.”
Bunge Ltd said today it will invest about $550 million to build a soy protein concentrate facility in Indiana to cater to a rising demand for plant-based food products and processed meats. The new facility, which is adjacent to the company's soybean processing plant in Morristown, is expected to process an additional 4.5 million bushels of soybeans.
January soybeans are trading within the previous session’s range after falling to $14.68, just above 10-day moving average support at $14.66 1/2.

Wheat futures are mixed, with SRW higher and HRW and spring contracts mixed.

Spring wheat and HRW contracts have recovered some early declines tied to expectations heavy snow in the Northern and Central Plains will bring much-needed moisture relief.
Eight to 16 inches of snow fell the past two days across northwestern and north-central Nebraska through much of South Dakota (excluding the far east) to North Dakota, World Weather said. More snow is expected due to a strong slow-moving low-pressure trough moving through the region.
Net weekly wheat sales totaled 469,000 MT, up from 189,900 the previous week and above expectations ranging from 150,000 to 300,000 MT. The top buyer was “unknown destinations” at 164,000 MT.
Strategie Grains forecast 2023-24 EU wheat production at 128.7 MMT, up 3.2 MMT (2.5%) from this year. The firm trimmed its 2022-23 EU wheat export forecast by 100,000 MT to 31.5 MMT.
The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its 2022-23 Argentine wheat crop forecast another 300,000 MT to 11.5 MMT, below the 19 MMT that was expected at the start of the growing season. The exchange cited a “devastating season, between the constant lack of water... and the frosts.”
Japan purchased 154,942 MT of wheat in its weekly tender, including 65,870 MT U.S., 63,562 Canadian and 25,510 MT Australian. Tunisia purchased 125,000 MT of durum wheat from an unspecified origin.
March SRW wheat reached $7.67, about 2 cents under the high so far this week, before fading. The contract faces resistance at the 40-day moving average around $7.74 1/2.

Live cattle are under pressure from slower cash trade and sharp declines in wholesale beef, though heavy snow in the U.S. Plains may limit price downside.
Livestock stress is expected to increase with additional snow expected in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, accompanied by elevated wind speeds that may promote blizzard or blizzard-like conditions.
Packers have been slow to establish bids in the negotiated cash market this week but appear unwilling to pay any more than steady prices, while feedlots have little intent to move cattle at lower prices. The market appears to be set up for a second week of light trading volume.
Choice beef cutout values fell $4.88 to $250.07 on movement of 117 loads.
USDA reported net weekly beef sales of 10,900 MT for 2022, up sharply from 1,600 MT the previous week. Lead buyers included South Korea (4,100 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (3,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Mexico (1,600 MT). Net sales of 2,900 MT were reported for 2023.

Hog futures are lower at midsession.

Lean hog futures dropped to the lowest prices in over two months amid bearish technicals and weakness in wholesale pork.
The CME lean hog index is up 6 cents to $81.68 (as of Dec. 13), which follows a 15-cent gain on Wednesday. Those marked the first consecutive daily gains since Oct. 21 and Oct. 24, building hopes a seasonal low may be near.
Pork cutout values plunged $6.87 Wednesday to an 11-month low at $84.27, driven by a drop of nearly $37 in bellies.
Net weekly U.S. pork sales totaled 14,400 MT for 2022, up from net sales reductions of 7,900 MT the previous week. Top buyers include Mexico (9,600 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT) and Japan (1,600 MT). Net sales of 7,700 MT were reported for 2023.
February lean hogs fell as low as $82.275, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Oct. 14.

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