Market Snapshot | December 14, 2022

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Corn futures are mostly around a penny lower at midsession.

  • Corn futures are under mild pressure amid corrective selling following a brief recent rally.
  • U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.061 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Dec. 9, down 16,000 bpd from the previous week and down 2.4% from the corresponding week a year ago, the Energy Information Administration reported. Ethanol stocks increased 1.15 million barrels to 24.407 million barrels.
  • Ukraine has exported almost 19.7 MMT of grain so far in 2022-23, down 31.5% from the same period last year, according to ag ministry data. The volume included 10.8 MMT of corn, 7.3 MMT of wheat and 1.5 MMT of barley. Ukraine expects to export around 51 MMT of grain this marketing year, down sharply from a record 86 MMT in 2021-22.
  • March corn overnight held support at the 10-day moving average of $6.46 3/4.

Soybeans are 3 to 6 cents higher, January soymeal is more than $4 higher and January soyoil is around 50 points higher.

  • Soybean futures are higher behind recent export demand, concerns over dryness in South America and strength in crude oil.
  • Net drying is expected in Argentina the next 10 days, despite some periodic showers and thunderstorms, World Weather Inc. said. “Crop moisture stress will be rising once again as the ground firms and any rain would be welcome, but much more is going to be needed.”
  • In Brazil, dryness is intensifying across Rio Grande do Sul as the state continues to miss out on rainfall, World Weather said. Still, soybean and first-season corn prospects “remain highly favorable in the remaining portions of Brazil.”
  • U.S. soybean crush in November likely reached 181.473 million bu., the ninth highest on record for any month, based on a Reuters polls of analysts ahead of the monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report Thursday.
  • January soybeans traded within the previous session’s range, rising to $14.86 3/4, just under Tuesday’s high.

Wheat futures are lower, led by declines of 10 to 16 cents in HRW contracts.

  • Wheat futures are under pressure with snow this week expected to bring moisture relief in parts of the U.S. Plains.
  • In the HRW belt, rain and snow shower activity in the next seven days is likely to be limited, World Weather said. A larger snow event will be needed next week due to a surge of arctic air which could send temperatures below zero Fahrenheit in at least central and northern production areas.
  • In the Northern Plains, a major snowstorm will continue to impact the region today through Thursday. Blizzard conditions are most likely in the south where the strongest winds are expected. More travel delays and livestock stress will occur.
  • Moscow could increase its grain export quota for 2022-23 from its current level of 25.5 MMT, Interfax news agency quoted Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev as saying, without providing further details. Russia produced a record grain crop this year, including around 100 MMT of wheat.
  • France expects to export 10.3 MMT of wheat outside of the EU trade bloc in 2022-23, up 300,000 MT from the ag ministry’s previous forecast. That would be a 17% increase from 2021-22 exports. The ag ministry cut its 2022-23 wheat export forecast within the bloc by 210,000 MT to 6.73 MMT.
  • Tunisia tendered to buy 100,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat. Japan received no offers in its tender to buy 70,000 MT of feed wheat and 40,000 MT of feed barley.
  • March SRW wheat overnight dropped under the 20-day moving average at $7.49 and fell to $7.37 3/4. The contract Tuesday hit its highest level in over a week.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are mixed at midmorning.

  • February live cattle are trading around the middle of today’s range as the market waits for cash trade to develop.
  • Futures remain supported by tight supplies and an outlook for continued cash firmness, but price gains may be limited by trader caution driven by expectations packers will try to limit cash market strength through the end of the year.
  • Choice beef cutout values fell $2.07 Tuesday to $254.95 after soaring $8.09 Monday.
  • February live cattle rose as high as $156.50, slightly under the three-week high of $156.775 posted Tuesday.

Hog futures are mixed, with December and February contracts under light pressure.

 

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