Market Snapshot | October 26, 2022

Corn futures rebounded from overnight lows amid a continued pullback in the U.S. dollar, though buyer interest is limited. The U.S. dollar index is near a five-week low.
Rain from northern Arkansas to western Michigan and southeastern Wisconsin Tuesday and early today should lead to improved runoff for the middle Mississippi River that may work its way downstream, World Weather Inc. said.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.033 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ended Oct. 21, up 17,000 bpd from a week earlier and the highest since the week ended July 29. Production was still down 6.6% from the same week a year ago. Ethanol stocks increased 447,000 barrels to 22.291 million barrels.
Belarus expects a record grain crop of about 11 MMT this year, the country’s ag minister said. To date, Belarusian farmers have harvested 9.8 MMT of grain, including rapeseed.
December corn has returned near an overnight high at $6.89 3/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since $6.92 1/4 on Oct. 17. Futures will face stiff resistance near the $7.00 level.

Soybeans extended overnight gains and are trading near highs for the week behind strength in crude oil and weakness in the dollar.
“Significant” rain fell in Argentina Tuesday and early today, bolstering soil moisture for improved winter crop conditions and supporting better planting, emergence and establishment conditions for other crops, World Weather said.
Brazil weather “is still expected to be mixed over the next two weeks, but some of the rain will be lighter than usual in center west and center south as well as the northeast,” World Weather said. “Rain amounts have decreased in recent model runs for parts of the region.”
November soybeans climbed as high as $13.97 3/4, just 3/4 cent under this week’s high and near trendline resistance in the $13.99 to $14.00 area. A break above that area could prompt bulls to target the $14.14 intraday high for the month.

Winter wheat futures rebounded from an initial drop to five-week lows amid heavy pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Expected rains on the recently-planted crop in the U.S. Plains are somewhat limiting gains.
The ag attaché in Buenos Aires cut its 2022-23 Argentine wheat crop peg to 15.5 MMT, 2 MMT less than USDA’s official forecast earlier this month, citing “dry conditions.” The post lowered its 2022-23 Argentine wheat export outlook to 10 MMT, also 2 MMT less than USDA’s forecast.
Algeria bought 80,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat, with additional purchases possible. South Korea tendered to buy 128,000 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S., Australia and Canada.
December SRW wheat earlier fell to $8.24, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $8.19 1/4 on Sept. 19, before recovering to gains. The contract faces resistance at the 10- and 50-day moving averages, which converge around $8.52.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are mostly higher at midmorning.

Live cattle futures rebounded from initial weakness on expectations for continued strength in the cash market.
Wholesale beef strength continues to underpin futures. Choice beef cutout values surged $3.51 Tuesday to $261.43, the highest daily average since Aug. 29. Movement was strong at 149 loads.
December live cattle fell as low as $152.825 before climbing to gains. Futures on Tuesday posted a contract high at $154.25.

Hog futures are higher, led by December and February contracts.

Lean hogs are trading near two-month highs posted late last week on supported from firm cash fundamentals and bullish technicals.
The CME lean hog index is up 14 cents to $94.81 (as of Oct. 24), the eighth gain in the past nine days and the highest level since Sept. 29.
Pork cutout values tumbled $3.44 Tuesday to a three-week low of $98.49, led by a drop of nearly $14 in bellies. But movement was strong at 416 loads.
December hogs rose as high as $89.55, near a two-month high at $89.80 on Oct. 21. Prices have eased from slightly overbought conditions, with December currently posting 67.1 on the Relative Strength Index.

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