Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Posted on 10/17/2019 1:48 PM
advice

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  • Oct. 17: Order hit to increase 2019-crop wheat sales. Also start 2020-crop wheat sales. Enter fed cattle hedges. Details below. 

  • Oct. 16: Increase 2019-crop cotton sales and enter a standing order to further advance sales. Extend corn-for-feed and soybean meal coverage. Details below. 

  • Oct. 15: No changes.

  • Oct. 14: No changes. 

  • Oct. 11: No changes. 

*Note: Check below daily to see if we recommend catch-up sales for individual markets. 

 
Corn
Cash-only marketers

2019 crop: 40% sold via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2019 crop: 40% sold via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

 

We will wait on the next rally before increasing 2019-crop sales. Be prepared to make initial 2020-crop sales. 


Soybeans
Cash-only marketers

2019 crop: 40% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2019 crop: 50% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

We will wait on further price strength before increasing 2019-crop sales. Be prepared to make initial 2020-crop sales. 


Wheat
Cash-only marketers

2019 crop: 60% sold

2020 crop: 10% forward-sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2019 crop: 60% sold 

2020 crop: 10% forward-sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions 

On Oct. 17, our standing order at $5.20 in Dec. SRW wheat futures was hit, triggering a 20% 2019-crop sale. We also advised selling an initial 10% of expected 2020-crop production via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery. 


Cotton
Cash-only marketers

2019 crop: 45% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2019 crop: 45% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

You should have a standing order to sell another 10% of 2019-crop in the cash market if December futures hit 65.45 cents.  

Livestock
Cattle

4th qtr. 2019

25%

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

3rd qtr. 2020

0%
On Oct. 17, we advised fed cattle producers to hedge 25% of fourth-quarter production in December live cattle futures. Our entry was $114.05. 
Hogs

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

3rd qtr. 2020

0%

Continue to carry all risk in the cash market. But be prepared for short-term defensive hedges given futures premium to cash if futures can't push above the spring/summer downtrend. 


Feed
Corn

4th qtr. 2019

Cash and hedge coverage through mid-November.

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

3rd qtr. 2020

0%
You should have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through mid-November. You should maintain the long hedges at $4.58 in December corn futures; we'll now consider that our coverage through mid-December. 
Meal

4th qtr. 2019

Coverage in the cash market through mid-November.

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

3rd qtr. 2020

0%

You should have all soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through mid-November. Our next downside target for further extending soybean meal coverage is $303 in December futures. 

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