Big balance sheet changes coming Oct. 12
Updated corn, soybean and cotton crop estimates, big balance sheet changes coming Oct. 12... USDA will release its Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports at 11 a.m. CT on Wednesday. The 2022-23 domestic balance sheets will reflect Sept. 1 stocks and the final 2022 wheat crop estimate, along with any changes to this year’s corn, soybean and cotton crop forecasts. That will produce some major adjustments to the supply and demand sides of the balance sheets. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.
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Expectations for 2022 |
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Corn |
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Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
|
Average est. |
13.855 |
171.8 |
NA |
|
Range |
13.766 - 14.056 |
170.1 – 173.9 |
NA |
|
USDA September |
13.944 |
172.5 |
80.844 |
|
Soybeans |
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Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
Average est. |
4.381 |
50.5 |
NA |
|
Range |
4.309 - 4.463 |
49.8 – 51.3 |
NA |
|
USDA September |
4.378 |
50.5 |
86.631 |
|
Cotton |
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|
Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
|
Average est. |
13.34 |
NA |
NA |
|
Range |
12.80 – 13.65 |
NA |
NA |
|
USDA September |
13.832 |
843 |
7.876 |
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Expectations for U.S. Carryover |
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Corn – billion bushels |
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|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
Average est.* |
1.377 |
1.124 |
|
Range |
NA |
1.015 – 1.300 |
|
USDA September |
1.530 |
1.219 |
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*Set by Sept. 1 stocks in Grain Stocks Report |
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Soybeans – million bushels |
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|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
Average est.* |
274 |
248 |
|
Range |
NA |
187 - 343 |
|
USDA September |
240 |
200 |
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*Set by Sept. 1 stocks in Grain Stocks Report |
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|
Wheat – million bushels |
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|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
Average est. |
NA |
554 |
|
Range |
NA |
477 - 637 |
|
USDA September |
660 |
610 |
|
|
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Cotton – million bales |
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|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
Average est. |
NA |
2.46 |
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Range |
NA |
2.07 – 2.93 |
|
USDA September |
3.75 |
2.70 |
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Expectations for Global Carryover |
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Corn – MMT |
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|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
301.44 |
|
Range |
NA |
280.30 – 311.00 |
|
USDA September |
312.14 |
304.53 |
|
|
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Soybeans – MMT |
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|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
100.03 |
|
Range |
NA |
97.50 – 103.20 |
|
USDA September |
89.70 |
98.92 |
|
|
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Wheat – MMT |
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|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
267.49 |
|
Range |
NA |
262.60 – 270.00 |
|
USDA September |
275.67 |
268.57 |
|
|
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Cotton – million bales |
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|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
84.64 |
|
Range |
NA |
84.20 – 85.15 |
|
USDA September |
84.79 |
84.75 |
