Putin May Block Renewal of Ukraine Export Deal Expiring in November

U.K. PM: No U.S./U.K. trade deal for now; Britain to focus on trade deals elsewhere

A U.S./U.K. trade deal is unlikely in the short to medium term, British Prime Minister Liz Truss said as she arrived in New York, adding that she will focus on alliances elsewhere. Her comments demonstrate the resignation of British politicians over Washington’s reluctance to open formal negotiations.

New U.S. home construction unexpectedly surged in August, rising to the highest level in two months even as rising interest rates and steep prices for construction materials continue to cool the housing market.

A Russian missile exploded near Ukraine’s second-largest nuclear plant. Where? About 300 yards from reactors at the plant in south Ukraine. Some nearby equipment was damaged, officials said yesterday, but the facility is operating as normal.

Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields closed at multiyear highs, with the 10-year reaching the highest settlement level since 2011 and the 2-year since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 3.5% on Monday for the first time since 2011, while the rate on the 2-year Treasury rose overnight to a 15-year high of 3.97%.

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today, with central-bank officials expected to approve a third straight interest-rate increase of 0.75 percentage point.

Rising housing costs are emerging as a major driver of overall U.S. consumer inflation. Shelter costs are climbing at an accelerating pace, accounting for a growing share of the overall inflation rate — about 25% of August’s rate, up from about 20% in February.

World food supply stays tight after weak U.S. harvest. Agriculture executives say that at least two years of bumper crops are needed to relieve pressure from drought and the war in Ukraine. Details in Food section.

More of America's farmers rely on off-farm income at the same time that agriculture accounts for a smaller share of rural employment nationwide, said a University of Missouri study on Monday.

Japan’s inflation quickened to the fastest in more than three decades, creating headaches for the central bank.

Ford said supply costs are running $1 billion above expectations in the current quarter, a sign of inflationary pressures rippling through the economy. The company said supply problems have resulted in parts shortages that affect about 40,000 to 45,000 vehicles, particularly trucks and SUVs. These vehicles also typically carry higher profit margins. Ford said it’ll have more details when it reports earnings Oct. 26. The company’s stock fell about 5% in off-hours trading.

The U.S. Dept. of Energy plans to offer an additional 10 million barrels of strategic reserve oil for sale ahead of the EU’s plans to ban most Russian crude. Perspective in Energy section.

Europe’s biggest truck makers are stockpiling natural gas and preparing to shift to alternative fuels amid the threat of a winter shortage as Russia continues to cut off pipelines to the continent. Meanwhile, Germany released another 2.5 billion euros of credit lines to secure gas supplies. More about what Germany is doing relative to energy supplies in the Russia/Ukraine section. Result: Europe’s scramble for oil and gas is causing a tanker shortage. The LNG carrier shortage is particularly acute as much of the fleet has already been booked for winter when demand is expected to climb, especially when Freeport LNG restarts.

Container-ship operators are turning to planes. Years of supply-line disruptions have pushed many customers to opt for more reliable air shipping, executives say, despite the cost. Now these seafaring companies are racing each other into the sky. More in Markets section.

Dockers at Britain’s fourth-biggest container port start a two-week strike today over pay.

White House says no change in public health policy despite Biden’s declaration pandemic is “over”… the emergency declaration continues.

House Democrats said they’ve settled on a continuing resolution (CR) running through Dec. 16 to ensure federal funds flow through the midterm elections and give lawmakers time to pass an omnibus appropriations package in a lame-duck session.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly lower and Asian shares mostly higher. U.S. Dow opened just over 200 points lower and is currently down around 350 points. In Asia, Japan +0.4%. Hong Kong +1.2%. China +0.2%. India +1%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.7%.

     Ford Motor: Shares are down over 5% in premarket trading after the automaker warned late on Monday that quarterly earnings would be crimped by higher supplier costs and parts shortages. The carmaker still reiterated its full-year guidance, projecting 2022 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, while EBIT for Q3 was maintained in a range of $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion. The automaker's largest rival, General Motors, also announced similar issues earlier this year, saying it was unable to deliver nearly 100,000 vehicles due to parts shortages of items like computer chips.

     U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow gained 197.26 points, 0.64%, at 31,019.68. The Nasdaq moved up 86.62 points, 0.76%, at 11,535.02. The S&P 500 was up 26.56 points, 0.69%, at 3,899.89.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn rose 1 cent to $6.78 1/4, the contract’s first gain in five sessions.
• Soy complex: November soybeans rose 12 3/4 cents to $14.61 1/4, its first gain in five sessions. December soymeal rose $7.60 to $429.30. December soyoil fell 80 points to 65.16 cents.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 29 1/4 cents to $8.30 1/2, the contract’s lowest closing price since Sept. 8. December HRW wheat dropped 25 1/2 cents to $9.09 3/4. December spring wheat fell 20 1/2 cents to $9.18 1/4.
• Cotton: December cotton fell 325 points to 96.04 cents, the contract’s lowest close since Aug. 8.
• Cattle: October live cattle rose 22.5 cents to $145.725, after earlier rising to $146.275, the highest intraday price for a nearby contract since August 2015. October feeder cattle rose $1.05 to $182.30.
• Hogs: October lean hogs fell 42.5 cents to $96.475 after reaching a four-week high earlier. The CME lean hog index rose 20 cents to $97.97 (as of Sept. 15) and the index is expected to rise another 45 cents.
   

Ag markets today: Corn futures mildly built on Monday’s gains overnight, while wheat recouped a small portion of yesterday’s losses and soybeans pulled back. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans were 3 to 4 cents lower and wheat futures were mostly 2 to 5 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index were both trading just above unchanged.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

     • U.S. housing starts are expected to tick up to an annual pace of 1.45 million in August from 1.446 million one month earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: New U.S. home construction unexpectedly surged in August, rising to the highest level in two months even as rising interest rates and steep prices for construction materials continue to cool the housing market. Housing starts climbed 12.2% last month to an annual rate of 1.575 million units, according to new Commerce Department data released on Tuesday. That's above Refinitiv economists' forecast for a pace of 1.445 million units.
     • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt at 1 p.m. ET.
     • FOMC: Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting begins.
     • United Nations: General debate begins at the annual U.N. General Assembly in New York, where the war in Ukraine will feature prominently. 

Focus not only on Fed chair comments Wednesday but also on updated “dot plot” rate projections. Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday will release a new set of interest rate projections. Following its two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is on Wednesday expected to raise interest rates by at least 0.75 percentage points for the third consecutive time as it tries to hit the brakes on the overheating U.S. economy. The decision, which would lift the federal funds rate to a new target range of 3% to 3.25%, will be accompanied by a fresh “dot plot” that compiles officials’ forecasts for interest rates until the end of 2025. 

     Traders are pricing in an 80% chance that the FOMC will lift its overnight lending rate tomorrow by 75 basis points for a third time, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. That compares with a 20% probability of a more outsized, 100 basis-point rate increase in the wake of August's hotter-than-expected inflation reading. 

Inflation watch: shelter. Rents and other shelter costs are emerging as a major driver of overall consumer inflation, keeping it high at a time when some other sources are starting to ease, the WSJ reports (link). Economists expect housing inflation to strengthen further before cooling off in the coming months, but are unsure of when relief will appear. Overall annual inflation eased to 8.3% in August from 8.5% in July, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. That reflected declines from the month before in prices for items such as gasoline, airfares and used cars, and slower price increases in other categories, such as groceries. Housing was an outlier. Not only are shelter costs rising, they are climbing at an accelerating pace, accounting for a growing share of the overall inflation rate.     
    

More of America's farmers rely on off-farm income at the same time that agriculture accounts for a smaller share of rural employment nationwide, said a University of Missouri study on Monday. The analysis, commissioned by agricultural lender CoBank (link), said the majority of principal farm operators worked off the farm and off-farm income accounted for 82% of farm household income. Only the largest operations, with gross cash farm income above $350,000 a year, generate enough revenue to provide more than half of family income in a year; many farms are so small they make little or no money at all.

Japan’s inflation quickened to the fastest in more than three decades, creating headaches for the central bank as it seeks to explain why it needs to continue with monetary stimulus when inflation is far above its 2% goal. The resolve to keep borrowing costs at rock-bottom levels makes the Bank of Japan a global outlier in monetary policy.

Dockers at Britain’s fourth-biggest container port start a two-week strike today over pay, the latest outbreak of labor unrest that’s sweeping through key choke points of the world economy from the railways of North America to truckers in Peru. Their cause will get a boost next week, when dockers at Felixstowe join them in a work stoppage that will slow the movement of about half of Britain’s container imports and exports. Link to details via Bloomberg.

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.535%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield climbed to 3.979%. U.S. crude is firmer around $86 per barrel and Brent slightly stronger at $92.50 per barrel. Gold and silver futures are under mild pressure ahead, with gold around $1,675 per troy ounce and silver around $19.26 per troy ounce. Both gold and copper prices have fallen for four out of the past five trading sessions.

     • European gas prices fell again to their lowest level in almost two months — dropping as much as 8.8% yesterday — as EU countries intensified efforts to ease the energy crisis. Demand will soon rise with the start of the heating season less than two weeks away.

     • According to AAA, U.S. gasoline pump prices were averaging about $3.67 per gallon on Tuesday, down from a record of over $5.00 seen back in June, though the drop has been accompanied by recession fears, an aggressive Fed and heavy bearish sentiment.

     • Port of Long Beach Executive Director Mario Cordero expects the pandemic-era surge in U.S. consumer demand that snarled supply chains will start to cool, with evidence of a deceleration starting to show in weaker inbound container arrivals. He spoke in an interview at Bloomberg News’ New York office Monday. The nation’s No. 2 gateway for trade moved 806,940 20-foot container units last month, down 0.1% from August 2021 — which was its busiest August on record. Imports dropped 5.6% and exports gained 1.6%. Through August, Long Beach moved 6.6 million TEUs, a 4% increase from the same eight-month period last year.

        Cordero also expressed confidence that dockworkers and their employers at West Coast ports will keep cargo moving as they negotiate a new labor contract, avoiding a repeat of the stoppages and delays that plagued supply chains in the 2014 talks.

     • Big ocean shipping lines turn to planes as supply-chain snarls deepen. Big ships aren’t enough anymore, planes are needed, too. The pandemic, which accelerated the shift toward online shopping, followed by post-lockdown demand and now the war in Ukraine, scrambled the intricate ballet that shipping companies rely on both at sea and in port to deliver goods on time. Port congestion has forced ships to wait at anchor for weeks. A lack of workers to load and unload ships has further slowed deliveries. Empty containers have piled up in places with nothing to put in them. The three European companies that dominate container shipping — Denmark’s AP Moeller-Maersk, France’s CMA CGM Group and Switzerland’s Mediterranean Shipping — have in the past largely shunned airfreight as an expensive distraction from their globe-spanning fleet of giant vessels, container terminals and related logistics businesses. But years of global supply-line disruptions have pushed many customers to opt for more expensive — and more reliable — air shipping, the Wall Street Journal reports (link).

     • Hottest August on record for North America and Europe. Last month brought severe drought, wildfires, and sweltering-hot temperatures to many parts of the world, including North America and Europe — two areas that saw their hottest-ever Augusts on record, according to a new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report (link). Overall, NOAA said, record-warm temperatures encompassed a whopping 8.2% of the world’s surface last month. Both Europe and China saw their warmest-ever summers, while North America had its second-warmest summer. Globally, NOAA said, last month ranked as the sixth-hottest August ever recorded since 1880, when it first began collecting such data.

     • NWS weather: There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Basin/Central Rockies from Wednesday through Thursday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday and the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Basin/Central Rockies and the Southwest/Southern Rockies through Wednesday morning... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley.

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Corn and wheat firmer, soybeans weaker overnight
     • Consultant cuts U.S. corn, soybean crop estimates
     • Further deterioration in U.S. corn, soybean CCI ratings
     • China leaves interest rates unchanged (details in China section)
     • Wholesale beef prices holding up amid heavy supplies
     • Cash hog fundamentals firming

— Summary: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged western nations to supply more weapons so forces can press ahead with their counteroffensive against Russia. The plea came as Germany pledged to hand over four more self-propelled howitzers. Kuleba said Ukraine hoped to add to recent territorial gains. The counteroffensive is “a clear message to everyone that it works, that it makes sense to help Ukraine with weapons because we can defeat President Putin and his army in our territory,” Kuleba said. He also predicted that Putin will probably try to block the renewal of a grain export deal that expires in November.

• Three Baltic nations just closed their borders to Russian tourists — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. "Russia is an unpredictable and aggressive state. Three-quarters of its citizens support the war. It is unacceptable that people who support the war can freely travel around the world, into Lithuania, the EU," Lithuania's Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite said Monday. AP has more from Warsaw, link.
• The German government has set aside billions of euros for natural gas purchases to stave off an energy crisis since Russia cut off its supplies. Initially, 1.5 billion euros ($1.5 billion) had been set aside for gas buying, but with that funding nearly exhausted, the government has added another 2.5 billion euros, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. Altogether, credit lines of as much as 15 billion euros were set aside to fund the purchases.
  
  Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf will likely sign contracts for liquified natural gas with the United Arab Emirates during a two-day trip to the Middle East, where he will also travel to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. 
• China's crude oil imports from Russia in August surged 28% from a year earlier, official data showed on Tuesday, but it handed back its top supplier ranking to Saudi Arabia for the first time in four months. 
• Hungary said it was prepared to abide by EU requirements a day after the bloc threatened to freeze 7.5 billion euros of funding unless it takes steps to curb fraud and corruption. 
• Reuters reports that PepsiCo has stopped making Pepsi, 7UP and Mountain Dew in Russia nearly six months after the U.S. company said it would suspend sales and production after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine. 
• Bunge sells Russian oilseed business. Bunge Ltd., one of the world's leading agricultural commodities traders, said it would sell its oilseed processing business in Russia to Karen Vanetsyan, controlling shareholder of Exoil Group, for an undisclosed price. Link for details.

— ERP payments near $7 billion mark as of Sept. 18. Payments under the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) moved up to $6.74 billion as of Sept. 18, up from $6.63 billion the prior week. The total includes $5.80 billion in payments for non-specialty crops ($5.71 billion prior) and $940 million for specialty crops ($918 million prior).

— Senate Democrats want USDA accelerate producer debt relief. USDA was urged to quickly implement provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that provide debt relief to distressed USDA borrowers with at-risk agricultural operations. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) called on USDA to consider those that are “90 days or more delinquent, borrowers in foreclosure, borrowers who have had their farm loan restructured and borrowers who owe USDA more interest than principal as distressed borrowers.”

     The lawmakers also called on USDA to quickly implement IRA provisions to “provide much needed financial assistance to Black farmers and others who have suffered discrimination through USDA’s farm lending programs.”

     Background: The IRA authorized $3.1 billion to provide relief to distressed borrowers and $2.2 billion for those who have been discriminated against by USDA. The provision replaced the American Rescue Plan debt relief effort for farmers of color who had been discriminated against that has since been challenged and held up in court.

— Chinese navy could fully blockade Taiwan today if it really wanted to, a top U.S. naval commander told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published Monday (link). "They have a very large navy, and if they want to bully and put ships around Taiwan, they very much can do that," Vice Adm. Karl Thomas said. Thomas commands the U.S. Navy's Japan-based Seventh Fleet, whose assets would almost surely be called into action should Beijing choose to militarily seize the self-governing island off its east coast.

     Beijing's comments: "We are willing to do our best to strive for peaceful reunification; at the same time, we will not tolerate any activities aimed at secession," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Monday. "There is only one China in the world, Taiwan is part of China, and the government of the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government of China," she said.

— China leaves interest rates unchanged. China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged, as expected, as authorities held off additional monetary easing following rapid declines in the yuan and as other global central banks continued to tighten monetary policy. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.30%. Widening divergence in the monetary policies between China and the U.S. could stoke fears of capital flight out of China, just as Beijing seeks to marshal resources to revive sluggish growth.

— Liz Truss acknowledges U.K. trade deal with U.S. is not on the agenda. She made the comments as she arrived in New York on her first overseas trip as prime minister. President Joe Biden has made it clear that such a deal was not a priority and on the flight from London to New York, Truss admitted it was not on the agenda. “There aren’t currently any negotiations taking place with the U.S. and I don’t have an expectation that those are going to start in the short to medium term,” Truss told reporters en route to the U.N. General Assembly.

     Truss said her focus was to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, along with trade deals with India and the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. “Those are my trade priorities,” Truss said. Asked when she thought a trade deal with the U.S. might be feasible, she declined to comment.

— Dept. of Energy will offer an additional 10 million barrels of low-sulfur crude from its strategic reserves, ahead of plans by the European Union to ban most Russian oil in December. The government’s offer comes at a time when global benchmark oil prices have retreated to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The timing coincides with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries discussing the possibility of curbing production. OPEC and its allies agreed to cut output next month by 100,000 barrels a day. The new sale of 10 million barrels will be of sweet crude and contracts will be awarded by October 7. Link for more via Reuters.

     Background: The 10-million-barrel sale will bring total sales to 165 million barrels out of the 180-million-barrel target to be sold by the end of next month. In March, the Biden administration authorized the release of 1 million bpd from the SPR over a period of six months in a bid to lower oil prices and potentially boost domestic production through contracts with companies to purchase future oil at fixed prices. Volumes in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have subsequently dropped to just 434 million barrels, marking their lowest level since 1984. At the start of the year, the SPR contained 593 million barrels, and it reached its highest point in 2010, when emergency stocks reached 727 million barrels.

     When asked about a date for selling the full 180 million barrels targets, a senior Biden Administration official told reporters, as carried by Reuters, “As we look to the future, I think what you’re seeing right now is us evaluating the current market dynamics and making sure that our releases align with the needs. ”The Dept. of Energy has said there would be no rush into buying crude to refill the SPR, and that the purchase plans were not pegged to any specific oil price.

     Perspective: "I think the market should be freaking out" about the end of SPR draws, said Phil Flynn, energy market analyst at the Price Futures Group. "I think when the releases end, it's going to have the impact of losing a major producer — it will really tighten supplies." He even believes it could add another $5 to $10 premium to WTI oil prices.

— Final rule on canola/rapeseed oil RFS pathways at OMB. EPA sent the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) its final rule on Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) pathways for certain biofuels produced from canola/rapeseed oil. It deals with the analysis of the lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, naphtha, and liquefied petroleum gas produced from canola/rapeseed oil via a hydrotreating process. There were 34 comments filed on EPA’s proposal that canola derived renewable diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, naphtha, and liquified petroleum gas as meeting the lifecycle GHG emissions reduction threshold of 50% required to qualify as advanced biofuels and biomass-based diesel under the RFS.

— Gina McCarthy, the departing national climate adviser, says she’s seen a paradigm shift during her tenure: Businesses now see climate action as an opportunity, not a burden. Link for details via the New York Times via a guest essay.  

— Food summit. The EU, U.S., African Union and Spain will co-chair a special summit on food security today on the United Nations confab sidelines. The summit — according to the U.S. — is intended as a follow-up to a G7 meeting in June where the industrialized allies pledged around $4.5 billion for combating hunger.

— India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will soon decide whether to extend a food dole out that has cost the country $44 billion since the pandemic, or ease the strain on government finances and food supply. Link for details.

— A lackluster U.S. harvest this year is setting back efforts to ease pressure on the global food supply. Years of bad weather affecting big crop-producing regions have stretched global crop supplies, senior executives from agricultural companies such as Bayer, Corteva, Archer Daniels Midland and Bunge said, and they remain tight. Some said easing the pressure will require at least two years of good harvests in North and South America, which persistent drought makes harder. War’s effects on Ukrainian crop production and export add to the uncertainty. Link for details.

— Boozman opposes universal meal plan. Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), ranking member on the Senate Ag Committee, would not support a proposal to include in a stop-gap government funding bill a return to free school meals to all students, Politico reported.

— Countries suffering the most from extreme weather/hunger. A new report (link) reviewed by NPR showed that the 10 countries that have suffered most from extreme weather since 2000 have also seen hunger increase sharply. The charity looked at the 10 countries that were the subject of the most United Nations appeals for extreme weather-related crises since 2000: Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Guatemala, Haiti, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, Somalia and Zimbabwe. The report found that these countries have seen the number of people suffering acute hunger — when food is scarce — more than double in the last six years to 48 million, with nearly 18 million on the brink of starvation, when people succumb to that scarcity of food. Link to NPR report.

— European bread prices surge. The price of bread in the EU rose by 18% in the past year due to disruptions in global markets caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine; meat, vegetables and cooking oils are also more expensive. Link for details.

— A real meaty bite? Beyond Meat COO Doug Ramsey was arrested for allegedly biting a man’s nose in a Fayetteville, Ark., parking garage following the Razorbacks college football game Saturday.

— Covid-19 summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 615,519,228 with 6,528,043 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 95,713,382 with 1,053,840 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 612,781,120 doses administered, 224,636,858 have been fully vaccinated, or 68.18% of the U.S. population.

— What does Biden’s “pandemic is over” comments mean for policy? President Joe Biden’s pronouncement that “the pandemic is over” is not likely to change his administration’s efforts to respond to Covid-19. “We still have a problem with Covid. We’re still doing a lotta work on it,” Biden said in a 60 Minutes interview that aired Sunday. “But the pandemic is over.”

     Some public health leaders say it is irresponsible to announce the pandemic is over because about 400 people are still dying daily from the virus, and up to 23 million Americans are living with long Covid, according to the Government Accountability Office.

     On Monday, an administration official said Biden’s comments do not mark a change in policy toward the administration’s handling of the virus, and there are no plans to lift the Public Health Emergency, which has been in place since January 2020 and is currently extended through Oct. 13.

— Congress today:

• The House convenes at 10 a.m. ET for morning hour debate and noon for legislative business.
• The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. ET for consideration of the nomination of Florence Pan to be United States Circuit Judge for the D.C. Circuit, with a vote on the nomination at 11:30 a.m. ET. The Senate will recess after votes until 2:15 p.m. ET for caucus lunches. At 2:15 p.m. ET, the Senate will vote on the motion to invoke cloture on the resolution of ratification with respect to the “Kigali Amendment” to the Montreal Protocol.

• House Ag Committee hearing, "A 2022 review of the farm bill: Stakeholder perspectives on Title II conservation programs," 10 a.m. ET.
• Senate Banking Committee hearing, "Examining the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Rural Housing Service," 2:30 p.m. ET.
   

— Neither chamber is in session next Monday and Tuesday due to Rosh Hashanah.

— House and Senate leaders in final negotiations on the size and details of a plan to fund the federal government and head off a shutdown threat by the end of this month. House Democrats said they’ve settled on a continuing resolution (CR) running through Dec. 16 to ensure federal funds flow through the midterm elections and give lawmakers time to pass an omnibus appropriations package in a lame-duck session. CR issues include the price tag and provisions of the must-pass stopgap, including the funding it will carry to help states deal with disasters and Ukraine fight off Russia’s assault. While some disaster aid could be part of the CR, ag sector sources say billions in disaster aid for 2022 crops and livestock will likely be linked to the omnibus measure. Disaster Aid: Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Schumer and others try to build on Biden’s request for $6.5 billion in extra emergency disaster funds. New York’s congressional delegation wants help for Puerto Rico, which was devastated by Hurricane Fiona over the weekend.

     Timeline: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday sent more signals the Senate may take the lead on the CR, with the potential to set up votes on the measure early during the week of Sept. 26. Following Senate action, House lawmakers would be under heavy pressure to pass the stopgap without changes before funding runs out Oct. 1.

— U.S. Custom Harvesters backs bill to simplify CDL. U.S. Custom Harvesters Inc (USCHI) is supporting a bill from Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) that would exempt commercial drivers license (CDL) employees of small businesses from certain federal safety training requirements. Rounds’ TRUCKS Act would allow states to issue a new “Small Business Restricted CDL,” which would not require drivers to complete Entry-Level Driver Training (ELDT) classes in addition to existing state requirements. Rulemaking finalized last year imposed the ELDT requirement, and the requisite training classes can cost from $450 to $8,500 and take up to 20 days to complete, USCHI noted.

     Details: The TRUCKS Act would make the new Small Business Restricted CDL available to small businesses with nine CDLs or less and allow states to exempt employees of agriculture-related industries, including custom harvesters, from ELDT requirements.

     Co-sponsors of the bill include Sens. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). Link to more on the measure from Sen. Cramer.

— People fleeing Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua are driving arrests at the southern border. More than three times as many migrants from those countries have been arrested this year as at the same point in 2021. Border Patrol agents made about 181,000 arrests of migrants crossing the southern border illegally in August, putting the total this year just shy of two million with a month still to go in the government’s 2022 fiscal year.

— Offering chips and pizza, Montgomery County police invited marijuana enthusiasts, who brought joints, edibles, vape pens and at least one bong. The purpose was to show officers what marijuana impairment looks like, and the stoners what cannabis can do to their driving. Link for details via the WSJ.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list |