Market Snapshot | September 19, 2022

Corn futures are 2 to 4 cents lower at midsession.

• December corn fell a fifth straight session but rebounded off earlier lows on support from strength in soybeans. Accelerating harvest, global recession concerns and strength in the U.S. dollar are pressuring prices, though the dollar has retreated to near unchanged at midmorning.
• The central U.S. will be hot and dry weather through the middle of this week before temperatures cool late in the week. Scattered showers may cause brief interruptions to fieldwork “while bringing welcome moisture to winter crop areas before rain is restricted and fieldwork should become aggressive Sep. 26 to Oct. 3,” World Weather Inc. said.
• USDA will update harvest progress after today’s close. Last week, USDA said 5% of the crop was harvested as of Sept. 11, slightly above the 4% average for the previous five years.
• Through Saturday, a total of 165 ships with 3.7 MMT of agricultural products on board had left Ukrainian ports since Aug. 1 under the grain export deal, the country’s infrastructure ministry said. Another 10 ships carrying 169,300 MT of grain departed Ukrainian ports on Sunday.
• Ukraine expects a 2022 grain crop of 50 MMT to 52 MMT, unchanged from its previous estimate and down from 86 MMT last year, the country’s ag ministry said. The ministry expects grain exports to total between 5.4 MMT and 5.5 MMT this month, up from 4.5 MMT in August.
• USDA reported 549,354 MT (21.6 million bu.) of corn inspected for export during the week ended Sept. 15, up from 474,388 MT the previous week and around the middle of trade expectations ranging from 375,000 to 800,000 MT.
• December corn fell as low as $6.68 1/4, holding above Friday’s low at $6.67 1/2 and the 100-day moving average at $6.68 1/2.

Soy complex futures are mixed, with soybeans up 11 to 12 cents and nearby soymeal up more than $8, while nearby soyoil is down around 50 points.

• Soybean futures rebounded from overnight declines behind signs of fresh export demand. USDA’s lower-than-expected production and ending stocks forecasts a week ago continue to underpin prices.
• USDA reported a daily soybean sale of 136,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year, the first daily announcement of a soybean sale to China since Aug. 31.
• USDA reported 518,743 MT (19.1 million bu.) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ended Sept. 15, up from 341,713 MT the previous week and around the middle of trade expectations ranging from 350,000 to 650,000 MT.
• In South America, needed rains fell on areas of Brazil and Argentina over the weekend. Argentina will receive some additional rains early this week before drier conditions return, while three waves of rains are expected across Brazil over the next 10 days.
• November soybeans fell as low as $14.38 1/4 overnight before rebounding and climbing as high as $14.65 3/4.

Wheat futures are down sharply, led by declines of 33 to 35 cents in HRW and SRW markets.

• Winter wheat futures sank to the lowest levels in over a week on the dollar’s surge back near 20-year highs and escalating concerns over a potential global recession.
• Dry conditions in the U.S. Plains remains a concern with planting underway. Plains rainfall is expected to be limited in the next two weeks, World Weather said. “Greater rain will be needed for favorable winter wheat planting,” the forecaster said.
• USDA will update weekly planting progress after today’s close. Last week, USDA said 10% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sept. 11, ahead of the 7% average for the previous five years.
• USDA reported 790,145 MT (29.0 million bu.) of wheat inspected for export during the week ended Sept. 15, up from 757,804 MT the previous week and at the high end of trade expectations ranging from 400,000 to 950,000 MT.
• Russian ag consultancy IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s 2022 wheat crop by 2 MMT to 99 MMT. IKAR says Russia will have 47.5 MMT of wheat available for export in 2022-23.
• Saudi Arabia purchased 556,000 MT of wheat from unspecified origins. Pakistan tendered to buy 300,000 MT of wheat from unspecified origins. Bangladesh cancelled a tender to buy 50,000 MT of wheat.
• December SRW wheat dropped under its 10- and 20-day moving averages and fell as low as $8.19 1/4, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $8.18 on Sept. 8. Initial support comes in at the 40-day moving average at $8.15 3/4.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are higher at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures jumped to a five-month high on expectations for continued cash market strength potentially offset by slumping wholesale beef prices.
• Feeder cattle are gaining support from weakness in corn futures.
• USDA-reported live steers averaged $142.79 through Friday morning, up from the previous week's average of $142.48. Traders expect cash prices to continue firming this week but buyer interest in futures may be limited until active trade gets underway, likely around mid-week.
• Choice beef cutout values ended last week at $252.40, down $4.86 for the week and near a 17-month low posted Thursday.
• October live cattle pushed above the August high and reached $146.275, the highest intraday price since the contract high of $147.50 posted April 22.

Hog futures are narrowly mixed.

• October hogs are down slightly but still trading near three-week highs on support from a rebound in cash fundamentals. Deferred contracts are mostly firmer.
• The CME lean hog index is 20 cents higher to $97.97 (as of Sept. 15), the second straight daily gain after a five-week string of losses. October lean hog futures finished Friday around $1 below today’s cash index quote, which should limit seller interest.
• Pork cutout values ended last week at $106.39, up $3.52 for the week and the highest daily average in over three weeks.
• October lean hogs are trading within Friday’s range. Initial resistance is seen at Friday’s intraday high of $96.925.