Market Snapshot | September 16, 2022

Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midsession.

December corn fell for a fourth straight day and is heading for its first weekly decline in four as concerns over the global economy weighs on grain markets.
The accelerating U.S. harvest is also weighing on corn. USDA will update harvest progress after Monday’s close. Earlier this week, USDA said 5% of the crop was harvested as of Sept. 11, above the 4% average for the previous five years.
French corn crop conditions were stable last week, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed, halting a nine-week fall linked to scorching summer weather. An estimated 43% of the crop was in good or excellent condition as of Sept. 12, unchanged from the previous week.
December corn extended overnight declines and fell as low as $6.67 1/2, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 9 and slightly under the 100- and 20- day moving averages at $6.69 and $6.67 3/4, respectively.

Soy complex futures are mixed, with soybeans down 9 to 12 cents and soymeal down around $7, while soyoil is up more than 80 points.

Soybean futures fell a fourth consecutive day but are still poised for solid gains this week after USDA’s crop and yield estimates Monday were lower than expected.
Harvest pressure is expected to increase with Midwest weather trending warmer. “Mostly favorable conditions for crop maturation and early harvesting will continue during the next two weeks,” World Weather Inc. said today. “Temperatures will be mostly warmer than normal for at least another week and rain will be infrequent.”
Earlier this week, USDA said 22% of the U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves as of Sept. 11, behind the 28% five-year average.
November soybeans extended overnight declines and fell as low as $14.33 3/4 but is still up from $14.12 1/4 at the end of last week. Prices held support at the 20- and 10-day moving averages at $14.32 1/2 and $14.31 1/4, respectively.

SRW wheat rebounded from overnight declines and is trading mixed but is still on track for the first weekly decline in the past four weeks amid concerns over demand and the global economy.
Dry conditions in the U.S. Plains with peak seeding season ahead remain a concern. Some additional rains expected the next seven days “will be beneficial but is unlikely to be enough to satisfy the needs for winter planting in most areas, especially with temperatures being above to well above average,” World Weather said.
European grain trade association Coceral cut its 2022 EU wheat production forecast by 2.5 MMT to 143 MMT, down 400,000 MT from last year.
Russia’s wheat export tax for Sept. 21-27 will be 2,668.3 rubles ($44.45) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $311.90. That’s down from a rate of 2,962.9 rubles per metric ton the previous week and the sixth straight weekly decline.
December SRW wheat extended overnight losses and fell as low as $8.30 3/4, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $8.26 on Sept. 9. The contract is down from $8.69 1/2 at the end of last week.

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are lower in narrow-range trading at midmorning.

Live cattle futures are lower in a corrective pullback from Thursday’s rally, though selling pressure is being limited by a strengthening cash market.
Cash cattle trade picked up on Thursday as packers raised bids from earlier in the week, with most prices steady to $1 higher than last week. For the week through Thursday morning, USDA-reported live steers averaged $142.73, up from last week’s $142.48 average.
Wholesale beef remained under pressure, as Choice cutout values fell $1.13 to $252.34, the lowest since April 2021. Movement was again strong at 145 loads.
October live cattle fell as low as $145.10, holding above support at the 10-day moving average just above $144.95. The lead contract is down from $145.675 at the end of last week.

Hog futures are slightly higher and trading in tight ranges.

October hogs extended Thursday’s gains and the contract is poised for a strong weekly gain on beliefs the cash market has bottomed following a steep slump.
The CME lean hog index is up 19 cents to $97.77 (as of Sept. 14), up from a seven-month low earlier this week ending the string of daily price declines dating back to Aug. 11. The cash index is just $1.53 above October futures, a sharp narrowing from $14.735 at the end of August.
Pork cutout values fell $1.03 Thursday to $105.85 on movement of 274 loads, slower than average for a second straight day.
China’s ag ministry says the country’s price of pork averaged 30.69 yuan ($4.43) per kilogram for the week ended Sept. 9, up 1.2% from the previous week and 69% higher than last year. China will release a record 200,000 MT of pork from state reserves this month to boost supplies and stabilize prices.
October lean hogs rose as high as $96.40, under a three-week intraday high of $96.825 posted Thursday. The lead contract is up from $93.175 at the end of last week.

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