Market Snapshot | September 15, 2022

Corn futures are 1 to 3 cents lower at midsession.

• Corn futures fell for a third straight session in a continued corrective pullback from 2 1/2-month highs at the start of the week. Accelerating U.S. harvest is also weighing on prices.
• Major U.S. railroads and unions representing 115,000 of their workers avoided a strike that could have disrupted agricultural shipments. The sides reached tentative agreement giving them better pay and improved working conditions, President Joe Biden said in a statement Thursday.
• USDA resumed its weekly export sales reports today after technical problems forced a halt Aug. 25. For the week ended Sept. 8, net U.S. corn sales totaled 583,100 MT for 2022-23, within analyst expectations ranging from 300,000 to 900,000 MT.
• December corn fell as low as $6.77 1/4 but held support at the 10-day moving average. Further support lies at the 100-day moving average of $6.99 3/4.

Soy complex futures are mixed, with soybeans fractionally to 2 cents lower and soyoil down over more than 100 points, while soymeal is up $5 to $6.

• Soybean futures are down in a continued correction from 2 1/2-month highs posted earlier this week, with sharp declines in soyoil and crude oil adding pressure.
• Net weekly soybean sales totaled 843,000 MT for 2022-23, primarily for China (441,700 MT), unknown destinations (107,400 MT) and Taiwan (104,200 MT). Sales were at the high end of expectations ranging from 300,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
• Analysts expect members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report August soybean crush totaled 166.1 million bu., which would be down 2.4% from July but up 4.6% from last year and the second highest August figure behind 2019. Soyoil stocks are expected to decline to a 13-month low of 1.658 billion pounds.
• Indonesia set its crude palm oil reference price for Sept. 16-30 at $846.32 per MT, down from $929.66 for the first half of the month. The new reference price would place the export tax at $52 per MT, down from the current $74 rate.
• November soybeans fell under the 100-day moving average at $14.50 and dropped as low as $14.44 but are still up about 40 cents on the week.

Wheat futures are lower, led by declines of 14 to 18 cents in HRW and SRW contracts.

• Winter wheat futures faded from an overnight climb to two-month highs as the tentative agreement between railroads and workers’ unions eased concerns over possible shipping disruptions.
• Soft export demand remains a bearish factor. Net weekly U.S. wheat sales totaled 217,300 MT for 2022-23, at the low end of expectations ranging from 200,000 to 550,000 MT.
• Persistent dryness in the U.S. Plains remains a concern with winter planting underway. Some rain in the next seven days “will be beneficial but will not be enough to satisfy the needs for winter wheat planting, especially with temperatures being above to well above average,” World Weather Inc. said.
• Pakistan’s wheat production could be a lot lower than most, including USDA, are projecting, according to several sources. Aid agencies and officials warn that Pakistan’s cataclysmic floods could spread waterborne diseases and increase food shortages.
• Strategie Grains raised its outlook for the 2022-23 EU wheat crop by 800,000 MT to 124.1 MMT, though that would still be 4.4% lower than the previous year. However, it cut the EU wheat export outlook by 300,000 MT to 28.7 MMT.
• Kazakhstan’s ag ministry lifted restrictions on exports of wheat and flour as of Sept. 14. Exporters are now freely allowed to sell wheat and flour onto the world market. Previous quotas were originally expected to run through Sept. 30.
• Japan purchased 97,373 MT of wheat from its weekly tender, including 31,120 MT U.S. and 66,253 MT Canadian. Saudi Arabia tendered to buy 535,000 MT of wheat.
• December SRW wheat overnight reached $8.84 3/4, the highest intraday price since $8.85 1/4 on July 12, before dropping as low as $8.53.

Live cattle futures are firmer, while feeder cattle are mixed.

• Live cattle futures are rebounding from two straight days of declines on support from firmer cash cattle trade.
• Until this morning, light cash trade had occurred at steady to $1 lower prices in the northern market. But with the rail strike seemingly averted and packers short-bought on slaughter needs, firmer cash trade has developed.
• Choice boxed beef fell $3.19 Wednesday to $253.47, the lowest daily average since March 9, but movement was strong at 210 loads, signaling stepped-up retail demand on price weakness.
• USDA reported net weekly U.S. beef sales of 15,100 MT for 2022, primarily for South Korea (6,700 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT) and Japan (4,200 MT).
• October live cattle rose as high as $145.925, short of Monday’s high at $146.10.

Hog futures are sharply higher.

• October lean hogs climbed to a three-week high behind indications a recent slump in the cash market may be waning.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 9 cents to $97.58 (as of Sept. 13), a seven-month low, though that’s the smallest daily decline in weeks. The cash index is now less than $1 above October hogs, down from $14.735 at the end of August.
• Pork cutout values rose $2.11 Wednesday to $106.88, but movement slowed to 269 loads.
• USDA reported net weekly U.S. pork sales of 25,100 MT for 2022, primarily for Mexico (9,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (4,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT) and Japan (4,700 MT).
• October lean hogs pushed above the early week high to reach $96.825, the contract’s highest intraday price since $96.975 on Aug. 23.