Smaller corn, soybean crop estimates expected Sept. 12

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Smaller corn, soybean crop estimates expected Sept. 12... Analysts fully expect USDA to cut its corn crop estimate in the Sept. 12 Crop Production Report, with the average forecast down 271 million bu. for production and 2.9 bu. per acre for yield from last month. Analysts are split on soybeans, though the average estimate is down 35 million bu. on crop size and 0.4 bu. per acre for yield.

Perspective: The September estimates will include USDA’s first objective yield (field) samples for corn and soybeans. NASS also announced it has sufficient data to adjust corn and soybean acreage — if warranted. We don’t expect any major changes on corn acreage, though we expect a 500,000-acre increase for soybeans. If USDA uses historical corn ear weights, the estimate isn’t likely to fall as much from last month as some anticipate.

Expectations for 2022
U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

14.088

172.5

81.686

Range

13.895 - 14.307

170.6 – 174.9

80.971 - 82.113

USDA Aug..

14.359

175.4

81.840

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

4.496

51.5

87.288

Range

4.441 - 4.568

50.7 - 52.0

86.576 – 87.900

USDA Aug.

4.531

51.9

87.211

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

12.77

NA

NA

Range

12.20 – 13.50

NA

NA

USDA Aug.

12.570

846

7.129

 

USDA is expected to mildly increase U.S. old-crop ending stocks for corn and soybeans. For 2022-23 ending stocks, the average trade estimate is down 171 million bu. for corn, up 2 million bu. for soybeans and up 8 million bu. for wheat from last month’s projections.

Expectations for U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

1.547

1.217

Range

1.500 – 1.580

0.980 – 1.412

USDA August

1.530

1.388

 

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

236

247

Range

215 - 265

203 - 335

USDA August

225

245

 

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

618

Range

NA

594 - 650

USDA August

660

610

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

1.86

Range

NA

1.50 – 2.50

USDA August

3.50

1.80

 

 

Expectations for Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

302.29

Range

NA

296.90 – 305.90

USDA August

311.84

306.68

 

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

101.19

Range

NA

98.20 – 103.00

USDA August

89.73

101.41

 

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

268.10

Range

NA

263.60 – 274.00

USDA August

276.35

267.34

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

82.56

Range

NA

81.20 – 84.00

USDA August

84.72

82.77

 

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