Evening Report | August 29, 2022

( )

Click here to view weekly export inspections charts and here for report details.

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

 

Corn condition rating drops again... As of Sunday, USDA rated 54% of the corn crop “good” to “excellent,” down on percentage point from last week and in line with traders’ expectations. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased one point to 19%.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

8

7

4

Poor

11

11

10

Fair

27

27

26

Good

42

43

46

Excellent

12

12

14


USDA reported 86% of the crop was in dough stage, two percentage points behind the five-year average. The portion of crop that was dented stood at 46%, six points behind average. USDA reported 8% of the crop was mature, one point behind average for the end of August.

 

Soybean crop ratings unchanged... USDA rated 57% of the soybean crop “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week, though there was a one-point increase in the top category. Traders expected a one-point decline in the “good” to “excellent” rating. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” remained at 13%.  

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

4

4

5

Poor

9

9

10

Fair

30

30

29

Good

46

47

45

Excellent

11

10

11


USDA reported 91% of the crop was setting pods and 4% was dropping leaves, one and three percentage points behind average, respectively.

 

Cotton crop conditions improve... USDA rated 34% of the cotton crop “good” to “excellent,” up three percentage points from last week. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” declined four points to 36%.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

17

18

1

Poor

19

22

5

Fair

30

29

24

Good

29

26

55

Excellent

5

5

15


USDA reported 94% of the crop was setting bolls, three points ahead of average, while the portion of crop with bolls open stood at 28%, four points ahead of normal for late August.

 

Spring wheat crop unexpectedly improves... USDA rated 68% of the U.S. spring wheat crop “good” to “excellent,” up four points from last week. Traders expected the top two categories to be unchanged. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” declined two points to 6%.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

1

28

Poor

5

7

35

Fair

26

28

26

Good

58

56

10

Excellent

10

8

1


U.S. spring wheat harvest reached half done as of Sunday, 21 percentage points behind the five-year average. Harvest was just slightly more than half of the normal pace in North Dakota at 34% completed.

 

Canadian wheat production higher than expected... Statistics Canada estimates Canadian wheat production at 34.6 MMT, up 55.1% from last year and 600,000 MT more than traders expected. The increase in expected total wheat production is largely attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to rise by 57.3% to 25.6 MMT. Stats Canada forecasts canola production will rise by 41.7% to 19.5 MMT, which was 100,000 MT lower than expected.

Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm says, “The entire growing season has been about Canada on a path towards near attaining back-to-normalish crop potential, so we can’t get too caught up in short-term data micro-management. More important than month ago vegetative index data in this report will be the market talk of harvest reporting. This is what creates a higher or lower shifting yield sentiment going forward. But also note that Stats Canada will be out with second model-based survey on Sept 14, thereby diluting relevance of this one based on month ago data. Canada still looks to have a decent autumn harvest window. Some later crops must still escape any early frost threat, but the likelihood of timely commercial access to market-ready supply that is of decent quality is important. The initial reason is ability to meet the needs of large off-combine reload commercial demand. The trade will be eager to better understand protein content and falling number in CWRS, as well as canola oil content.”

 

Ukraine grain exports to double, next year’s acreage will shrink... Officials expect Ukraine’s key agricultural exports – grains, oilseeds and oils – to rise to about 4 MMT this month, up from 3 MMT in July. By October, the country’s ag minister told Reuters Ukraine could export 6 MMT to 6.5 MMT of grains and oilseeds as is ports normalize.

The ag minister says winter wheat acreage will fall by at least 20% from this year due to Russia’s invasion. He said Ukraine’s corn planted area is also likely to decline and be replaced by more oilseeds and sunseeds.

 

SovEcon raises Russian wheat export forecast... SovEcon raised its 2022-23 Russian wheat export forecast by 200,000 MT to 43.1 MMT. The increased export forecast came on the heels of the Russia-based ag consultancy recently raising its wheat crop estimate by 3.8 MMT.

SovEcon noted, “Exports remain sluggish for the second month in a row, and the window for active exports is getting smaller. In the second half of autumn, river navigation closes, the weather worsens in the Black and Azov Seas, and this is followed by a traditional New Year’s decline in business activity. And from February-2023, the export quota will probably start working again. From an S&D perspective, Russia could have exported 50.0 MMT of wheat this season. However, the strong ruble and restrictive export tax are not allowing exports to flow as fast as they should. We expect that Russia will speed up the exports near term but bear in mind that a big share of the season is behind us already.”

 

Granholm to refiners: cut exports... Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm in a letter called on major U.S. oil refiners to build up capacity and reduce exports of refined products ahead of winter. Granholm noted the reduced availability of diesel inventories along the East Coast, which are nearly 50% below the five-year average. Refined product exports are at a record high. “Given the historic level of U.S. refined product exports, I again urge you to focus in the near term on building inventories in the United States, rather than selling down current stocks and further increasing exports,” Granholm wrote, saying that such a buildup would be an alternative to emergency measures such as releases from the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve. The letter was reported first by the Wall Street Journal, which accused Granholm in an editorial of attempting to strong-arm the energy industry and abandoning European nations weaning themselves off Russian imports.  

 

Shell CEO: Europe should be prepared for several years of gas rationing... Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said it is “unlikely” Europe’s gas crisis will last just one winter, warning the region that it may have to prepare for several years of gas rationing as it prepares for a future without Russian fossil fuels. Speaking at an event in Norway, van Beurden said the energy supply crisis is unlikely to be limited “to just one winter” in the bloc. “It may well be that we have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions through efficiency savings, through rationing and a very, very quick buildout of alternatives,” he said. “That this is going to be somehow easy, or over, I think is a fantasy that we should put aside.”

 

Latest News

After the Bell | March 27, 2024
After the Bell | March 27, 2024

After the Bell | March 27, 2024

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor
Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

Market Watch | March 27, 2024
Market Watch | March 27, 2024

Cash cattle prices soar to all-time high.

Baltimore Bridge Collapse: Limited Impact on Trade Basis Channel Reopening Timeline
Baltimore Bridge Collapse: Limited Impact on Trade Basis Channel Reopening Timeline

RFK Jr. VP | Dairy cattle bird flu update | John Deere layoffs | Dollar/yen exchange rate 34-year high

Ahead of the Open | March 27, 2024
Ahead of the Open | March 27, 2024

Corn and soybeans each favored the downside overnight, with corn leading the way lower. Wheat showed relative strength and went into the break near unchanged.

First Thing Today | March 27, 2024
First Thing Today | March 27, 2024

Corn, soybeans and wheat extended Tuesday’s losses during the overnight session.