Evening Report | August 24, 2022

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Day 3 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour continued today – results for Illinois and western Iowa will be released at 8 pm CT.

Preliminary Route Report with Brian Grete, eastern Crop Tour leader

What counties have you sampled from?

  • Illinois: Livingston, LaSalle, DeKalb, Ogle

 

Corn yield range:

  • 167 bpa to 234.3 bpa

 

Corn yield average:

  • 196.4 BPA

 

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:

  • 779.2 pods to 1,546.6 pods

 

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:

  • 1,194.4 pods

 

Please share a few comments from your route:

We saw good plant health, good moisture and way more consistent corn than what we saw the previous two days. There were no real issues – ear counts were really consistent, grain length was better and the crop looks like it has really good potential. We also didn’t see the tip-back issues we saw in Indiana and Ohio.

Soybeans were little more variable in terms of pod counts… though most were in the 1,000 to 1,400 range. A pretty clean crop with decent potential and planted in heavy black soils. They’ve had ample moisture, plus have heavy soils that hold the moisture.

 

Preliminary Route Report with Chip Flory, western Tour consultant

What counties have you sampled from?

  • Western Iowa: Sac, Buena Vista, Clay

Corn yield range:

  • 130.5 bpa to 188.3 bpa

Corn yield average:

  • 158.8 bpa

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:

  • 956.9 pods to 2,044 pods

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:

  • 1,497.9 pods

 

Preliminary Route Report with Brent Judisch, western Tour consultant

What counties have you sampled from?

  • Western Iowa: Harrison, Monona, Woodbury, Plymouth

Corn yield range:

  • 142.2 bpa to 212 bpa

Corn yield average:

  • 182.7 bpa

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:

  • 710 pods to 2,042 pods

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:

  • 1,259 pods

Please share a few comments from your route:

We started north of Omaha in the Missouri River valley. The corn was way more consistent than what we saw in Nebraska – not a great crop, but still okay. In comparison to corn, the soybeans have been normal, and the pod counts prove that. The appearance of the beans is good and they don’t have the obvious signs of stress that we saw in Nebraska. Soil moisture is definitely better than in Nebraska, but still below average. We did get rained on all morning, and the rain should still help beans finish, or at least maintain a finish.

So far, we’ve seen an okay crop, a little better than expected based on what we saw first two days. As we get closer to Sioux Falls, we expect it to get drier and see (weaker) samples.

 

Preliminary Route Report with Mark Bernard, eastern Tour consultant

What counties have you sampled from?

  • Illinois: McLean, Logan, Mason, Fulton, Knox

Corn yield range:

  • 146 bpa to 204 bpa

Corn yield average:

  • 191 BPA

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:

  • 1,045 pods to 1,915 pods

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:

  • 1,433 pods

Please share a few comments from your route:

We’re seeing an Illinois crop that’s moving along toward maturity really rapidly. We saw the milk line on some plants, and we’re also seeing wind and brittle-snap damage in some fields. Overall, crop health is pretty good, though the last four to five fields could use some moisture to finish things out.

Soybeans aren’t too bad in terms of health. We saw sudden-death syndrome and cercospora in some fields, but overall health is pretty good. Like corn, the beans could use a drink. The pods are certainly there. On this route, the crops have potential to finish very well, given the right kind of weather conditions. Some beans starting to approach maturity. Pods in many cases very full.

 

Scouts on day 2 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Tuesday determined an average corn yield of 158.53 bu. per acre in Nebraska, down from both last year’s 182.35 bu. per acre estimate and the three-year Tour average of 176.68 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 1,063.72 for Nebraska, down from both 1,226.43 in 2021 and the three-year Tour average of 1,245.06.

In Indiana, samples yielded an average corn yield of 177.85 bu. per acre, down from both 193.48 bu. per acre in 2021 and the three-year Tour average of 178.26 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square totaled 1,165.97 for Indiana, down from 1,239.72 in 2021 but above the three-year average of 1,148,26.

Results for Illinois and western Iowa will be released at 8 p.m. CT today.

 

Corn futures extend upswing, soybeans erase initial rally… December futures rose 2 cents to $6.57 1/4, the contract’s highest closing price since June 28 but down nearly 14 cents from today’s high. New-crop corn rose a sixth consecutive session amid ongoing concern dry conditions in key parts of the Midwest will curb production potential. November soybeans fell 4 cents to $14.57 after earlier rising to $14.84 1/2. HRW and SRW wheat gained 12 to 15 cents.

 

Biden announces student debt relief... President Joe Biden announced his plan for forgiving student debt for some borrowers today, includes forgiving $10,000 for borrowers who make less than $125,000 per year ($250,000 for couples) and extending the payment freeze one final time until the end of the year. Biden said the amount of forgiveness will be higher for low-income borrowers who went to college on Pell Grants. Those who went to college on Pell Grants will receive $20,000 in student loan forgiveness. He added that those with undergraduate federal loans can also cap their payment at 5% of their monthly income.

Impact: Around 20 million Americans could have their debt completely canceled under Biden's plan, which could also cut monthly payments in half for future borrowers taking out undergraduate loans and hold schools accountable when they hike prices. Monthly payments on undergraduate loans will be limited to 5% of monthly income, and the pandemic-era halt to student loan repayments was again extended — but the administration is warning that this is the last time. The policy is expected to face challenges in court.

 

Some Senate Democrats call for USDA to rethink efforts on methane digesters… Five Senate Democrats want USDA to back away from plans to encourage installation of methane digesters at livestock operations, warning USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack in a letter the effort will result in more consolidation in the U.S. food industry. The lawmakers cited costs for a methane digester range from $400,000 to $5 million and “would not be economic viable without significant public subsidies and incentives.” They argued that money spent on subsidizing methane digesters are funds that “cannot be spent on alternative manure management strategies or regenerative agriculture practices.”

 

Lawyer: IRA Will Not Strengthen GHG regulation, reports are “much ado about nothing…” Note: Earlier this week we reported that the New York Times and others noted the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law amends the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). A lawyer replied:

“I read through the amendments and that is not what the amendments do. Instead, they provide money for this initiative. Undoubtedly, the Democrats wanted to include this verbiage to strengthen the case that Congress authorized EPA to regulate GHGs but in my view the effort will fall short because that is not what the amendments actually do. And in point of fact the amendments could not do that because regulatory type of mandates would have violated the Byrd Rule. Hence, much ado about nothing.”

 

OMB: Deficits, economic growth lower in the near term, inflation up... The White House's annual update to its most recent budget forecasts forecast a brighter near-term picture for federal finances but a somber outlook for inflation and economic growth. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in a report issued Tuesday sees the deficit for the current fiscal year dropping to just over $1 trillion, a $383 billion improvement from its prior forecast. It is also $1.7 trillion lower than the previous fiscal year's budget shortfall, a drop that OMB Director Shalanda said is the “single largest nominal decline in the federal deficit in American history.”

 

But U.S. economic growth is clearly slowing… High inflation and interest rates will likely tamp down the growth rates the White House budget office previously forecast. Growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) is now predicted to cool to 1.4% this year and 1.8% in 2023 from the prior 3.8% and 2.5% estimates the White House released in March.

 

Fourth-quarter CPI expected near 7%... Inflation as measured by the consumer price index is seen at 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to a year earlier, compared with 2.9% in the March budget. That is above the Congressional Budget Office's most recent estimate of 4.7%, but in line with private sector forecasts.

 

OMB updated forecast doesn't factor in the enactment of the fiscal 2022 budget reconciliation… That’s expected to reduce deficits by nearly $300 billion over a decade; a new $278 billion veterans’ health care and disability expansion program for those exposed to toxic substances; and the $79 billion “chips-plus” law providing grants and tax credits for domestic semiconductor manufacturing development. It also used data available in early June; as a result, the three most recent consumer price index readings aren't factored in, or the advance second quarter GDP estimate, which shows a 0.9% contraction in economic activity.

 

The forecast also doesn't include potentially expensive administrative actions. For example, the Biden administration is said to be nearing a decision to eliminate up to $10,000 in debt for certain student borrowers with federal loans, a move that could cost upwards of $300 billion depending on eligibility, the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated. 

 

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