The Week Ahead: Aug. 22-28, 2016

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:26 AM

Presidential campaigns | Fed confab in Wyoming | Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Political watchers will keep their focus on the presidential candidates and whether any new revelations come to light. There have been shifts in the Trump campaign and so attention will be on whether that brings any changes to his candidacy at this stage, and any uptick in his poll numbers which lag challenger Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Attention will start focusing more on the coming debates between the two candidates, which begin Sept. 26.

The end of the week will be a key focus for economic updates, but there will be plenty of information released ahead of the next update on the overall US economy to close out the week. Monday will see the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index followed by New Home Sales and Richmond Fed Manufacturing on Tuesday. Wednesday's updates include the FHFA House Price Index, the PMI manufacturing flash and Existing Home Sales and Thursday releases include Durable Goods, weekly jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing reports. The Friday attention will be on the second reading for US GDP in the second quarter, along with International Trade in Goods, PMI Services and Consumer Sentiment updates. That will give markets plenty of fresh updates on the US economy. On the foreign side, the week opens with China's trade data which will be watched to see if the country's imports pick up at all.

Friday will be the key day for Fed watchers. The Fed's Jackson Hole gathering, held annually in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, will likely feature comments from several Fed officials, whether they are scheduled on the program or if they are interviewed by news outlets. But the overwhelming focus will be on Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen who is to speak Friday morning. Her appearance will get the most attention since it is her first public remarks in weeks and her comments will be monitored for any signals on monetary policy. She may well not offer anything concrete, so that will lend itself to lots of interpretation by market participants as the gauge the prospects for rate increases the balance of the year.

Agriculture's attention will be on the Midwest Crop Tour being conducted by Pro Farmer, with treks across key Corn Belt states. The reports from the tour have been noted by markets in prior years and with huge crops signaled by USDA earlier this month, that will make the tour results very important. As for other items of note, Monday will see the release of the monthly Cold Storage and weekly Crop Progress updates, followed by US and Canadian Hogs update on Tuesday. The data run for the week is heaviest on Thursday, with release of the Weekly Export Sales, Food prices and updated forecasts for US ag trade. The latter is likely to see some adjustments given the pace seen to-date.


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.



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