Market Snapshot | August 19, 2022

Corn futures are 5 to 7 cents higher at midsession.

Corn futures are higher in a continuation of gains Thursday as traders monitor Midwest weather and wait for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour next week.
Strength in wheat is contributing to a firmer tone.
Midwest weather remains largely benign for corn. World Weather’s recent forecast reduced rain changes during the second week of the outlook, “but with soil conditions mostly favorable and temperatures mild the impact is unlikely to be very great.”
Ukraine has exported 2.99 MMT of grains since July 1, according to the country’s ag ministry, down 51.6% from the same period last year. The ministry data showed exports so far in 2022-23 included 1.94 million MMT of corn, 783,000 MT of wheat and 257,000 MT of barley.
December corn surpassed Thursday’s high and reached $6.21 1/2, but the contract is still down from last week’s close of $6.42 1/4.

Soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower and soymeal futures are more than $6 lower, while soyoil is around 100 points higher.

Soybeans are lower amid a pullback from Thursday’s gains as the market extends a sideways pattern and watches Midwest weather.
The weather leans bearish for soybean prices, but dryness in some pockets remains concerning.
China will auction another 500,000 MT of imported soybeans from state-owned reserves on Aug. 26.
November soybeans fell as low as $13.86 1/4 but held within Thursday’s range and are on track to end lower for the week after ending last week at $14.54 1/4.

Wheat futures are sharply higher, led by gains of more than 20 cents in HRW contracts.

Wheat bounced back from Thursday’s plunged to multi-month lows as corrective buying and bargain-hunting overshadowed strength in the U.S. dollar.
Ukraine’s wheat harvest is 91% complete at 17.4 MMT, according to grain traders union UGA. It said total harvest of grains and oilseeds stood at 25.7 MMT, 2.3 MMT higher than the country’s ag ministry indicated. Ukraine’s government expects total production to be 65 MMT to 67 MMT, down from last year’s record of 86 MMT.
Russia’s wheat export tax for Aug. 24-30 will be 4,794.7 rubles ($80.92) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $358.10. That’s down from a rate of 5,018.1 rubles per metric ton the previous week.
September SRW wheat overnight fell to $7.27 1/4, slightly above the 10-month low of $7.25 3/4 posted Thursday, before climbing to gains. The contract is still poised for a sharp decline this week after ending last week at $8.06.

Live cattle futures are mildly firmer as the market awaits cash developments and USDA’s Cattle on Feed report after today’s close.
Cash trade has been light so far this week, with the bulk of trade to establish after the USDA report. Before today, prices were trending firmer. USDA-reported live steers averaged $147.46 through Thursday morning, indicating prices will surpass last week’s average of $144.39.
USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show the Aug. 1 feedlot inventory up 0.7% from year-ago at nearly 11.2 million head. While placements on average are expected to be down 1.5% from last year, though estimates ranged from a 5% drop to 1.3% increase. July marketings are expected to be down 2.9%.
Choice beef cutout values rose 5 cents to $264.39 on strong movement of 132 loads.
October live cattle are trading within Wednesday’s range, with yesterday’s high at $146.25 marking initial resistance. A push above that level may have bulls targeting the contract high of $147.50 posted April 22.

Hog futures are lower at midmorning.

Lean hog futures extended this week’s selloff to hit six-week lows on chart breakdowns and ideas the cash market has peaked and is heading for a seasonal downturn.
Today’s CME lean hog index (as of Aug. 17) is down 2 cents to $120.60, the sixth drop in the past seven sessions, which places October futures at more than a $27 discount and illustrates traders’ bearishness toward fall price trends.
Pork cutout values rose $1.44 Thursday to $119.91, up from a five-week low. Movement improved slightly to 286 loads.
October lean hogs fell as low as $91.90, the contract’s lowest closing price since $90.225 on July 6.

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