Market Snapshot | August 17, 2022

Corn futures are weaker at midsession, with the December contract down around 1 cent.

Corn futures are under mild pressure in two-sided trading as prices consolidate following two days of losses and traders monitor Midwest weather and accelerating grain shipments out of Ukraine.
The Midwest weather outlook remains mostly price-negative for futures. Timely rain is expected across much of the region the rest of this week while temperatures will remain mild, World Weather Inc. said.
Ukraine expected five ships to arrive at its Chornomorsk Black Sea port today for loading with more than 70,000 MT of corn, wheat and other agricultural products. The port authority said 24 ships had left Ukrainian ports so far the past 17 days.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 983,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Aug. 12, down 39,000 bpd from the previous week but up 1.0% from the corresponding week last year. Ethanol stocks rose 190,000 barrels to 23.446 million barrels.
December corn overnight fell as low as $6.06 3/4, the lowest intraday price since $6.01 on Aug. 8, before rebounding. The contract held support at the 20-day moving average around $6.07 but remains down more than 27 cents for the week.

Soybean futures are up 3 to 4 cents, soymeal is narrowly mixed and soyoil is lower.

Soybeans rose in a corrective bounce following two days of sharp declines, with mild strength in crude oil providing spillover support.
Buyer interest is limited by expectations Midwest rains will boost yield prospects.
Spreading action is being seen in the soy product markets, with soyoil the weak leg today.
Malaysia will maintain its export tax for crude palm oil at 8% for September but it lowered the reference price to 3,907.51 ringgit ($875.34) per MT, down from 5,257.91 ringgit per MT this month.
November soybeans fell as low as $13.80 1/2 overnight before rebounding and climbing to $14.00, within Tuesday’s range. Tuesday’s low at $13.76 marks initial support, with initial resistance at the 20-day moving average at $13.99 3/4, just under today’s high.

Wheat futures are sharply lower, led by declines of around 23 cents in HRW contracts.

Wheat futures fell to the lowest levels in over a week as increasing grain shipments out of Ukraine eased concerns over global supplies.
India raised its wheat production estimate even as other forecasters scaled numbers down because of a heatwave. India estimates its wheat crop at 106.84 MMT, up 430,000 MT from its prior forecast. USDA on Friday cut its wheat production forecast for India by 3 MMT to 103 MMT.
Bangladesh tendered for 50,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

September SRW wheat extended declines after dropping under Monday’s low, sinking to $7.59 1/2, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Aug. 8. Continued weakness may have bears targeting a 6 1/2-month low of $7.52, posted Aug. 3.

Live cattle extended this week’s rally behind expectations for firmer cash prices and tighter supplies.
Feeder cattle futures climbed to a six-month high as corn prices eased.
This week’s cash cattle negotiations have been slow to develop, though one source signaled bids of $151 were passed in Nebraska, suggesting feedlots may be digging in their heels. Active trade may not be arise until late in the week as the market awaits USDA feedlot numbers.
USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report Friday is expected to show feedlot placements during July fell 1.5% from the same month a year earlier, based on the average estimate in a Reuters survey of analysts. The number of cattle on feed as of Aug. 1 is expected to rise 0.7% from a year earlier, while marketings are expected to decline 2.9%.
Choice beef cutout values rose 98 cents Tuesday to $265.44 on strong movement of 161 loads.
October live cattle reached $146.25, the highest intraday price since the contract high of $147.50 posted April 22.

Hog futures are mixed after recovering from an initial slide.

October lean hogs rebounded after falling earlier to the lowest level in over a week in an extension of Tuesday’s selloff, which was driven in part by ideas the cash market is topping out and heading into a seasonally weak period.
The CME lean hog index is down 65 cents today to $121.06 (as of Aug. 15), the fourth decline in the past five days. October futures’ sharp discount to the index indicates traders expect cash prices to erode in coming months.
Pork cutout values fell $3.76 Tuesday to $121.15, near a five-week low, but movement was strong at 337 loads.
October lean hogs fell as low as $95.575, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Aug. 4, before rebounding to gains.

Tags