Market Snapshot | August 3, 2022

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Corn futures are down 3 to 5 cents at midmorning.

  • Corn futures gained little followthrough buying interest from overnight gains and turned negative amid forecasts for rain in the Midwest and expectations for continued grain shipments out of Ukraine.
  • Much of the Midwest will receive “multiple rounds of timely rain through Monday that should prevent excessive dryness and significant crop stress through the next 10 days,” World Weather said. “Exceptions to favorable crop conditions are still expected from southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota to eastern Nebraska and much of western into central Iowa.”
  • Inspection of the first ship carrying grain to leave Ukrainian ports under the recent deal between Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nation will pass through the Bosphorus “shortly,” the Turkish defense ministry said today. The ship carrying 26,527 MT of corn is headed for Lebanon.
  • Exporters have shipped 1.46 MMT of Ukrainian grain through Romania’s port at Constanta during the war, and authorities said 183,581 MT of grains were currently en route to the port.
  • StoneX estimated the U.S. corn crop at 14.417 billion bu. and the average yield at 176.0 bu. per acre. The firm’s initial crop estimates are lower than USDA’s July projections of 14.505 billion bu. on a yield of 177 bu. per acre.
  • U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.043 million barrels per day (bpd) for the week ended July 29, up 22,000 bpd from the previous week and up 3.0% from the corresponding week last year. Ethanol stocks increased 66,000 barrels to 23.394 million barrels.
  • Taiwan purchased 55,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from South Africa.
  • December corn futures are trading near the overnight low of $5.87 3/4, the contract’s lowest intraday price since July 25.

Soy complex futures are lower, with November soybeans down around 18 cents, soymeal down more than $6 and soyoil down more than 30 points.

  • Soybean futures also erased overnight gains and fell along with corn and wheat as the market continued to give back much of last week’s rally.
  • A band of rains is pushing across the Midwest this morning, with more rainfall likely through Monday.
  • StoneX estimated the U.S. soybean crop at 4.490 billion bu. and the average yield at 51.3 bu. per acre. The firm’s initial crop estimates are lower than USDA’s July projections of 4.505 billion bu. on a yield of 51.5 bu. per acre.
  • USDA reported a daily sale of 135,000 MT of soymeal for delivery to Poland during the 2022-23 marketing year.
  • November soybeans dropped below the 10- and 20-day moving averages and fell as low as $13.65, the lowest intraday price since $13.58 1/4 on July 26.

Wheat futures are lower, led by the HRW and SRW contracts.

  • Wheat futures extended this week’s slide and fell near two-week lows as reports of additional grain shipments out of Ukraine eased concerns over tight global supplies.
  • Algeria purchased around 720,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat, much of which is expected to be sourced from France. South Korea purchased 50,000 MT of milling wheat from both the U.S. and Australia. Jordan tendered to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Iran tendered to buy 60,000 MT of milling wheat.
  • September SRW wheat fell as low as $7.58 3/4, the lowest intraday price since $7.54 on July 22, before rebounding. September spring wheat fell to $8.67 1/2, the lowest intraday price since mid-January.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are sharply higher at midmorning.

  • Live cattle futures jumped to three-month highs after initial cash market reports suggested prices this week will be stronger than expected.
  • Cash cattle traded in the $135 to $138 range in the Southern Plains and $143 to $147 in the northern market on Wednesday, sources reported, steady to as much as $3 higher compared to last week’s trade in both regions.
  • Choice beef cutout values fell $2.14 Tuesday to $268.46, though movement was strong at 157 loads.
  • October live cattle reached $144.125, the contract’s highest intraday price since May 5.

Hog futures are higher, led by the nearby August contract.

  • Lean hog futures rose to a high for the week as recent cash market strength and a firm wholesale market encouraged buyers.
  • The CME lean hog index fell 30 cents to $121.57 (as of Aug. 1), ending a nearly month-long string of daily price gains, but futures’ discount to the index is encouraging buying.
  • Pork cutout values surged $3.32 Tuesday to $131.02, a 14-month high, as bellies jumped more than $26. Movement was slightly slower at 283 loads.
  • October lean hogs hit a high for the week at $97.525.
 

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