Market Snapshot | July 19, 2022

( )

Corn futures are 13 to 15 cents lower at mid-morning.

  • Corn futures fell for the first session in the past five in a corrective pullback from recent gains. Better-than-expected crop ratings and increased supplies from Ukraine are contributing to pressure on grain futures.
  • USDA late Monday reported 64% of the U.S. corn crop in “good” or “excellent” condition as of Sunday, unchanged from a week earlier and above expectations for a drop to 63%. About 37% of the crop was silking, up from 15% the previous week but behind the five-year average of 48%.
  • When USDA’s weekly condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 1.8 points to its lowest level of the year at 363.4, 5.1 points below the five-year average for mid-July.
  • Extreme heat is expected to continue in much of the Midwest over the next week but some relief may be ahead in late July, World Weather Inc. said. Temperatures in the central U.S. could reach 115 degrees Fahrenheit over the next few days, with 100-degree readings reaching as far north as South Dakota and far western Iowa.
  • Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn yield projection unchanged but switched from a neutral bias to neutral-to-lower, citing “problematic” weather forecasts. He estimates the average corn yield at 177 bu. per acre.
  • December corn futures fell as low as $5.83, the lowest intraday price since $5.76 3/4 on July 13.

Soybean futures are 20-plus cents lower, while nearby soymeal is about 70 cents lower and nearby soyoil is around 150 points lower.

  • The soy complex is under spillover pressure from weakness in crude oil and other commodities, as well as corrective selling following Monday’s sharp gains.
  • USDA rated the soybean crop 61% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, down from 62% a week earlier and the fifth straight weekly decline. Analysts on average expected the rating to hold at 62%. Based on the Pro Farmer CCI, the soybean crop fell 3.0 points to 353.4, 2.1 points below average and the lowest rating of the year.
  • Cordonnier kept his U.S. soybean yield estimate unchanged at 51.5 bu. per acre but, as with corn, switched to a neutral/lower bias. “It is a little too early to say for sure that the soybean yields will decline, but I think the forecast for the remainder of July and the month of August is problematic,” he wrote.
  • November soybeans fell as low as $13.39, slightly under Monday’s low, before rebounding. Downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $13.15 3/4.

SRW wheat contracts mixed, with HRW and spring wheat lower.

  • Winter wheat futures are consolidating as traders watch for news on talks in Tehran today that may lead to a resumption of grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
  • Winter wheat harvest progress at the start of the week was slower than expected. USDA late Monday reported the winter wheat harvest at 70% complete, up from 63% a week earlier and below trade expectations for 75%.
  • The spring wheat crop continued to improve, with USDA rating the crop 71% “good” to “excellent,” up from 70% a week earlier, and the Pro Farmer CCI up 1.5 points for the week and 46.1 points above the five-year average.
  • Egypt made no purchases from its wheat tender, citing prices being higher than anticipated. Egypt's state grains buyer will seek to buy an unspecified amount of wheat in direct talks with trading houses without an international tender being issued.

Live cattle futures have firmed at midmorning. Feeder cattle are sharply higher.

Hog futures are slightly lower in most contracts.

  • August hogs are pivoting around unchanged, with seller interest limited by the cash index, which continues to rise.
  • Deferred hog futures are under mild pressure in a corrective pullback from Monday’s rally to three-month highs. Strong cash fundamentals are limiting seller interest.  
  • The CME lean hog index rose 74 cents to $114.89 (as of July 15), near a 13-month high. August futures’ discount to the index has widened to about $2.22.
  • Pork cutout values fell 22 cents to $121.96 but movement was strong at 309 loads, signaling solid retailer demand on any price dips.
 

Latest News

U.S. PCE Price Index Up 0.3% in Feb. 2024, Core Inflation Slows to 2.8%
U.S. PCE Price Index Up 0.3% in Feb. 2024, Core Inflation Slows to 2.8%

Final day for landowners to submit acres for CRP general signup

H&P Report negative compared to pre-report expectations
H&P Report negative compared to pre-report expectations

Nearly every category topped the average pre-report estimates.

After the Bell | March 28, 2024
After the Bell | March 28, 2024

After the Bell | March 28, 2024

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor
Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn
PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn

Corn planting intentions and March 1 stocks came in lower than expected.