Evening Report | July 18, 2022

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Corn crop condition ratings steady... USDA rated 64% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week, though there was a one-percentage-point increase in the top category. Traders expected a one-point decline in crop ratings. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased one point to 11%.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

3

2

Poor

8

7

7

Fair

25

26

26

Good

51

52

50

Excellent

13

12

15

                                                                               

As of Sunday, USDA reported 37% of the crop was silking, an increase of 15 percentage points over the past week but still 11 points behind the five-year average for mid-July.

The portion of crop in dough stage increased to 6%, one point behind average.

 

Soybean crop conditions decline... USDA rated 61% of the soybean crop as “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, down one point from the previous week. Traders polled by Reuters expected the crop rating to hold steady. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased one point to 10%.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

2

3

Poor

7

7

8

Fair

29

29

29

Good

51

52

49

Excellent

10

10

11

                                                                               

USDA reported 48% of the soybean crop was blooming, up 16 percentage points over the past week but still seven points behind the five-year average for the date.

The portion of crop setting pods advanced to 14%, five points behind average.

 

Cotton crop conditions slip... USDA rated 38% of the cotton crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one percentage point from the previous week. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 27%, though there was a one-point shift into the worst category.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

15

13

2

Poor

12

14

7

Fair

35

34

31

Good

34

34

49

Excellent

4

5

11

                                                                               
USDA said 74% of the cotton crop was squaring and 31% was setting bolls, both four points ahead of the respective five-year averages.

 

Spring wheat crop conditions improve... As of Sunday, USDA rated 71% of the U.S. spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” up one percentage point from last week and a point higher than traders expected. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” also increased a point to 6%. In top producer North Dakota, 70% of the crop is rated in the top two categories.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

1

29

Poor

5

4

34

Fair

23

25

26

Good

61

63

10

Excellent

10

7

1

 

USDA reported 68% of the crop was headed, 32 percentage points behind the five-year average. North Dakota’s crop was 63% headed versus the normal 91% for this date.

 

Winter wheat harvest just behind normal... As of Sunday, USDA reported 70% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was harvested, one point behind the five-year average for mid-July. Harvest is done in Texas and Oklahoma and 99% complete in Kansas. Hot and dry conditions across the Plains, lower Midwest and Delta this week should allow for rapid advancement in harvest in those areas.

 

ITC rejects fertilizer duties in win for farmers... The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) today revoked U.S. anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on ammonium nitrate fertilizer solutions from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago, voting to find that U.S. domestic producers are not injured by these imports. The finding will end U.S. anti-dumping duties of up to 122.93% on Russian urea nitrate fertilizer solutions and 111.71% on imports from Trinidad and Tobago imposed by the Commerce Department.

Bottom line: Had the commission found U.S. fertilizer producers were being injured by the Russian and Trinidad and Tobago imports, the duties would have been locked in for five years. The decision could help ease shortages and price increases for fertilizers brought on by Russia’s war in Ukraine, both major fertilizer exporters.

 

Survey: Recession odds increasing... Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal now put the chance of a recession sometime in the next 12 months at 49% on average, up from 44% a month ago and just 18% in January. Some 46% of economists said they expect the Fed to raise interest rates excessively and cause unnecessary economic weakness. Slightly fewer, 42%, said they anticipated the Fed increasing rates about the right amount to balance inflation and growth. Around 12% thought the U.S. central bank would raise rates too little.

Respondents cut their economic growth forecasts for 2022, projecting inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to rise 0.7% in the fourth quarter of this year from a year earlier. That’s down from 1.3% growth projected in June and 3.6% nine months ago.

 

China asks European leaders to meet Xi in November... Top European leaders have been invited to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in November but have yet to decide whether to accept. Invitations have been sent to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, according to the South China Morning Post, citing a senior source familiar with the situation. The trips would mark a return to Beijing for Western European leaders following almost three years of a zero-Covid policy that has prevented in-person diplomacy. The proposed date would be right after the 20th party congress, providing indirect confirmation Xi will get a third term as president.

 

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