After the Bell | July 15, 2022

Corn: December corn futures started the week by gapping higher into Sunday-night trade as trade focus was wrapped around shaky weather forecasts that were proving hot and dry through the crucial pollination phase for large portions of the Midwest. December futures were able to push through the psychological $6.50 mark, making highs on the week at $6.58 1/2.

Soybeans: The bears had the better week in the soy complex, but a weather market may be again brewing in soybeans and corn. World Weather Inc. in a midday dispatch said a high-pressure ridge is expected to expand in the Midwest next week, “resulting in what may be the hottest temperatures of the summer in portions of the Plains and western Corn Belt.

Wheat: The wheat complex tumbled this week, washing out last week’s gains. Strength in the U.S. dollar and headlines of Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and United Nations meeting to discuss the resumption of exports out of the Black Sea cast a bearish tone throughout the week. USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday had the same effect as production estimates were increased in addition to old and new-crop carryovers

Cotton: Macroeconomic conditions seem to be driving action in cotton futures these days, with white fiber futures tending to move in concert with the equity indexes, which traders are watching as an indication of recession prospects, and opposite the U.S. dollar index, which seems to be viewed as an export demand gauge. We don’t see this changing next week, although some surprise on the weekly USDA Crop Progress report Monday afternoon could certainly affect short-term prospects.

Cattle: Cash prices continued slipping Thursday, with the Monday-Thursday average for the five direct-market areas dipping to $144.45, down considerably from the week-prior figure at $147.07. It was rather surprising to see prices decline more substantially in the north than in the south, since northern feedlot supplies have consistently proven much tighter in recent weeks.

Hogs: It was not a bad week for the lean hog futures market bulls, as the chart-based traders see that this week a bullish pennant pattern on the daily chart for August futures formed and may produce technical buying early next week. Cash market fundamentals are also solid late this week, to encourage the lean hog futures bulls heading into next week.