10:30 Market Snapshot | July 14, 2022

Corn futures are mostly 7 to 8 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are finding support from forecasts calling for generally hot and dry conditions across the central U.S. over the next week to 10 days.
• World Weather Inc. says, “Dryness and heat will remain from the northern Delta to South Dakota and despite a few showers and thunderstorms in the region infrequently over the next ten days the region will experience a net loss in soil moisture and rising levels of stress. Most other U.S. Midwest crop areas will see a favorable mix of rain and sunshine, although be cautious here... the rain may not be well distributed, leaving pockets of net drying and developing crop stress.”
• Weekly corn export sales totaled 59,000 MT for 2021-22 and 348,200 MT for 2022-23. Traders expected sales between (100,000) and 300,000 MT for old-crop, and 100,000 to 400,000 MT for 2022-23.
• December corn futures continue to pivot around the $6.00 area while holding in the broad near-term range from last week’s low at $5.66 1/2 to Monday’s high at $6.58 1/2.

Soybean futures have turned firmer, as has soymeal. Soyoil futures are under solid pressure.

• Soybean futures have come off their earlier lows amid a firming of prices in nearby soymeal futures.
• Forecasts calling for generally hot and dry conditions across major U.S. production areas has also helped limit seller interest. While rains will fall on some areas, World Weather cautions that net drying is likely for most central U.S. locations.
• USDA reported net soybean sales reductions of 362,900 MT for 2021-22, including reductions 130,800 MT by China. There were net sales of 113,900 MT for 2022-23. Traders expected sales between (200,000) and 200,000 MT for 2021-22, and 100,000 to 300,000 MT for 2022-23.  
• Active spreading continues in the soy product markets, with nearby soymeal supported by those efforts and soyoil under moderate pressure.
• November soybean futures are pivoting around $13.50 while holding in the broader short-term range from last week’s low at $13.02 1/2 and Monday’s high at $14.38 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents lower. Spring wheat is holding onto modest gains.

• Wheat futures were unable to maintain the price gains from late in the overnight session amid pressure from outside markets and macroeconomic factors.
• There reportedly has been strong progress on restarting Ukrainian grain exports, which is pressuring wheat. But there are hurdles ahead even if an agreement is signed. Experts have cautioned that an agreement will not have an immediate impact on global wheat trade.
• The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher again today, pushing out to a new 20-year high. There are concerns about wheat export demand amid the surging dollar.   
• However, 2022-23 wheat export sales for the week ended July 7 greatly exceeded expectations at 1.017 MMT, including 265,300 MT sold to China. This was the first week with wheat sales in excess of 1 MMT since the week ended July 4, 2013.
• Wheat futures are also facing pressure from the broad risk-off trade today, as the commodity sector and the stock market are sharply lower.

Live and feeder cattle are moderately to sharply lower with nearby feeder futures leading declines

• Feeder cattle futures are facing pressure from the strength in the corn market and a corrective pullback from strong gains the three previous days.
• Live cattle are also pulling back from recent gains as traders wait on a clearer tone from cash cattle trade.
• This week’s cash trade started around $137 in the Southern Plains and $145 in the northern market – both around steady prices with last week.
• Wholesale beef prices weakened a little on Wednesday, with Choice down 46 cents and Select 91 cents lower. Packers moved a solid 119 loads on the day, though that was down notably form 178 loads on Tuesday.
• Net weekly beef exports sales of 9,200 MT were a marketing-year low, down 17% from the previous week and 42% below the four-week average.

Hog futures are mostly lower, with July higher and deferred contracts lower.

• July lean hog futures are supported by strengthening cash fundamentals. Traders are maintaining a premium ahead of Friday’s expiration.
• Deferred lean hog futures are lower on corrective selling.
• The CME lean hog index rose another 25 cents to $112.82 (as of July 12). That’s up $2.15 from the same date last year, though still $9.86 below the 2021 seasonal summer peak.
• The pork cutout value firmed 81 cents to $118.28 – a new high for the year, though 53 cents below this time last year and $16.66 below the June 2021 peak.
• Net pork export sales of 18,300 MT were down 42% from the previous week and 37% below the four-week average.