10:30 Market Snapshot | July 11, 2022

Corn futures are 10-plus cents higher, though they are well below opening levels and overnight highs.

• Corn futures are being supported by forecasts calling for mostly dry conditions across the central U.S. the next two weeks. After a brief cool down, temps are expected to turn hot by late this week, with the heat expected to persist through next week.
• Rains pushed across the western Corn Belt this morning but are expected to dissipate around midday and not extend into the eastern Belt.
• Outside markets are price-negative amid recession concerns. The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher, while crude oil futures are under solid pressure.
• Export corn inspections for the week ended July 7 totaled 933,725 MT (36.8 million bu.). That was within trade expectations on 725,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.
• December corn futures partially filled the big upside gap left on the open overnight. Near-term support extends from today’s low at $6.31 to last Friday’s high at $6.26. The overnight high of $6.58 1/2 marks strong near-term resistance.

Soybean futures are around 20 cents higher but below the opening levels overnight and well off their highs. Meal and soyoil are also higher but well off their earlier highs.

• Soybean futures are also supported by hot and mostly dry forecasts across major U.S. production areas the next two weeks.
• Outside markets have somewhat curbed buyer interest, with crude oil prices more than $2 lower and the U.S. dollar index more than 800 points higher.
• Export soybean inspections totaled 356,716 MT (13.1 million bu.). That was below the bottom end of the pre-report range of estimates from 375,000 to 575,000 MT.
• November soybeans partially filled large overnight price gap. Near-term support extends from today’s low at $14.00 3/4 to last Friday’s high at $13.98 3/4. The overnight high at $14.38 1/2 is strong near-term resistance.

Wheat futures are posting double-digit losses at midmorning, with the winter wheat market leading the pullback from overnight gains.

• Wheat futures turned lower shortly after the start of daytime trade.
• Pressure is coming from outside markets, in particular the strong gains in the U.S. dollar index, which surged to a fresh 20-year high.
• Winter wheat harvest is rapidly advancing amid hot, dry weather in the central United States. That’s also putting some hedge pressure on the market.
• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 309,802 MT (11.4 million bu.). That was with expectations from 250,000 to 450,000 MT.
• Technically, December SRW wheat futures filled the big overnight price gap, keeping short-term momentum solidly on bears’ side. Near-term trading boundaries are clearly established at last week’s low of $8.02 1/4 and the overnight high at $9.54.

Live cattle futures are mildly firmer. Feeder cattle are mostly lower.  

• Live cattle opened lower but have firmed amid support from the firming cash market.
• Buyer interest in live cattle is somewhat limited by negative outside markets and global recession concerns. The U.S. stock market is weaker and the U.S. dollar index is sharply higher.
• The strong dollar hasn’t hurt beef exports, which marked an all-time high in May.
• Wholesale beef trade is likely to weaken now that fill-in buying after the Fourth of July appears to be complete. The next “beef holiday” doesn’t come until Labor Day and beef demand is typically light during the heart of summer.
• Feeder cattle are pressured by the strength in the corn market this morning.

Hog futures are mixed, with the July contract firmer and August through December hogs weaker.

• Lean hog futures opened with a firmer tone, but buyer interest has faded, with most contracts now lower.
• July hogs are being supported by the rising CME lean hog index, though the contract maintains a solid premium. That suggests traders anticipate more near-term cash strength.
• August hogs are trading below the cash index and have turned lower, suggesting traders sense the cash market is near its seasonal peak and will soon weaken.
• The pork cutout firmed $2.34 on Friday amid gains in all cuts except butts and packers moved a solid 304.3 loads. Pork demand typically gets a boost from bacon demand ahead of BLT season.