Market Snapshot | June 30 2022

New-crop contracts are down around 16 cents to lead losses in corn futures at midmorning ahead of USDA reports.

• December corn futures fell to a three-month low ahead of USDA’s Acreage update, which is expected to include an upward revision to U.S. plantings. USDA will release its Acreage and Grains Stocks Reports at 11 a.m. CT.
• USDA is expected to raise its forecast for U.S. corn plantings by about 370,000 acres, to 89.86 million, based on a Reuters survey of analysts. June 1 corn stocks were expected at 4.343 billion bu., up 232 million bu. from a year earlier.
• Weekly export numbers were disappointing. Early today, USDA reported net weekly U.S. corn sales of 88,800 MT for 2021-22, down 87% from the previous week, down 72% from the average for the previous four weeks and a marketing-year low. For 2022-23, net sales totaled 119,300 MT for 2022/2023.
• The sales fell short of expectations for 2021-22 ranging from 200,000 to 700,000 MT and were at the low end of 2022-23 expectations from 100,000 to 500,000 MT for 2022-23.
• December corn dropped as low as $6.36, the new-crop contract’s lowest intraday price since $6.31 on March 29.

Soy complex futures are mostly lower, with soybeans down 17 to 23 cents, soyoil down over 100 points and soymeal down slightly.

• Old-crop soybeans are under pressure from soft weekly export figures as traders wait for USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.
• USDA reported net weekly sales reductions of 120,200 MT for 2021-22, down from 29,300 MT the previous week and a marketing-year low. For 2022-23, net sales totaled 127,600 MT, primarily for “unknown destinations,” at 70,000 MT. Expectations ranged from negative 100,000 MT to 100,000 300,000 MT for 2021-22 and 100,000 to 500,000 MT for 2022-23.
• USDA is expected lower its estimate for 2022 U.S. soybean plantings to about 90.45 million ac., down 509,000 acres from a March forecast, based on the Reuters survey. June 1 soybean stocks were projected at 965 million bu., up 196 million bu. from a year earlier.
• Indonesia is considering expanding the mandatory palm oil mix in its biodiesel to 35%, which would be up five percentage points from the current level, a government official said, as authorities look for ways to stimulate palm fruit purchases from farmers after a slowdown in exports.
• November soybeans fell as low as $14.54 1/2 after rising to the highest price in over a week at $14.82 1/2 earlier in the session.

Wheat futures are mostly lower, led by declines of over 10 cents in SRW and spring wheat.

• Wheat futures extended overnight declines after Ukraine shipped its first grain exports through the Black Sea in months, opening the possibility of additional wheat supplies at a time of strong global demand.
• A first cargo ship left the Russian-occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, a local official said today, after Russia said the port had been de-mined and was ready to resume grain shipments, Reuters reported.
• Analysts on average expect USDA to lower its forecast for U.S. all wheat seedings to 47.017 million ac. from 47.351 million ac. in its March projection.
• Net weekly U.S. wheat sales for 496,700 MT for 2022-23, up from 477,800 MT the previous week and at the high end of trade expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.

Live cattle futures are mostly lower while feeder cattle are firmer at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures extended early-week declines and dropped to four-week lows amid concern over beef demand and signs of eroding cash prices.
• Cash cattle sources reported trade in the $137 to $141 range in the Southern Plains Wednesday, with bids around $232 in the northern dressed market, generally steady to firmer compared with last week. But USDA-reported live steers averaged $140.66 through Wednesday morning, down nearly $4 from last week's average.
• Choice beef cutout values fell $2.26 Wednesday to $264.88 on movement of 118 loads.
• Feeder cattle are higher behind weakness in corn prices.
• USDA reported net U.S. beef sales of 17,000 MT for 2022, up 52% from the previous week and up 6% from the prior four-week average. 

Hog futures are mixed, with August down slightly.

• Lean hogs are under followthrough pressure from Wednesday’s drop to two-week lows and signs of a peak in the cash market.
• The CME lean hog index fell 38 cents to $111.26, down from a 10-month high.
• USDA’s Hogs & Pigs (H&P) Report late Wednesday had little impact on futures. USDA showed the June 1 inventory down 0.9%, with the marketing herd also down 0.9% and the breeding herd 0.8% smaller than year-ago. The figures were near traders’ expectations.
• Pork cutout values rose $3.09 Wednesday to $108.56 on relatively light movement of about 247 loads.
• USDA reported net weekly pork sales of 32,300 MT for 2022, up 27% from the previous week and from the prior four-week average.