Corn crop condition ratings slip

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Corn conditions slip a little... USDA says corn planting reached 97% done as of Sunday, right in line with the five-year average. North Dakota still had 10% of its crop to plant, while Minnesota nearly caught up to its five-year average with only 2% of the crop left to plant.

Corn emergence increased 10 percentage points to 88%, a point behind average for the date.

Crop conditions dropped a point to 72% “good” to “excellent.” Traders expected the top two categories to be unchanged. USDA rates 5% of the crop “poor” to “very poor,” up a point from last week.  

Soybeans rated highly to start the growing season... Soybean planting advanced 10 point over the past week to 88%, right in line with the five-year average. Crop emergence jumped 14 points to 70%, though that was still four points behind normal.

USDA’s initial crop condition ratings pegged 70% of the crop as “good” to “excellent,” in line with what traders polled by Reuters expected. Only 5% of the crop was rated “poor” to “very poor.”

Spring wheat planting still behind, conditions shy of expectations... Spring wheat planting advanced 12 percentage points over the past week to 94%, still five points behind the five-year average. North Dakota still had 9% of its crop to plant, while Minnesota had 8% left.

The crop was 73% emerged, 21 points behind the norm for the date.

USDA’s initial crop condition ratings pegged 54% of the crop as “good” to “excellent,” nine points lower than traders expected. The crop was rated 9% “poor” to “very poor.”

Winter wheat harvest in line with expectations... Winter wheat harvest increased five points over the past week to 10% done, two points behind average. The crop was 53% harvested in Texas (52% on average), 32% in Oklahoma (33%) and 2% in Kansas (4%).

USDA says 86% of the crop was headed, four points behind normal.

Cotton conditions decline... USDA says 90% of the cotton crop was planted as of Sunday, two points ahead of the five-year average. Texas had seeded 89% of its crop, five points ahead of average. Georgia had seeded 92% of its crop, in line with normal for this date.

The crop was 14% squaring, a point behind average.

USDA’s “good” to “excellent” rating dropped two points to 46%. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased four points to 19%.

World Weather: High pressure ridge not necessarily an omen for summer... An “impressive ridge of high pressure” is expected to move into the central U.S. later this week. World Weather Inc. says it does not believe this is an omen for summer – for now. It says, “Most of the longer-range forecast models; including the GEFS, EPS and CFS computer forecast models extending outward 3-5 weeks suggest a much less intensive high-pressure ridge for the summer. The pattern advertised by each of these longer-range forecast models is mostly good with timely rainfall and near to above-average temperatures in the western and central parts of North America and milder-than-usual conditions in the eastern United States. It is important to note that while these models are advertising a relatively normal summer after next week, none of them predicted the notable ridge of high pressure advertised for this week except possibly the CFS model, which had a bias toward strong ridging in the middle of North America a few weeks ago. The World Weather, Inc. Trend Model also has a bias toward less impressive heat and dryness during the summer of 2022. The fact that so many models are suggesting the same solution should push a cloud over the long-range outlook reducing confidence of where we will go from here. However, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, lingering La Nina and their coincident occurrences in this current post 22-year solar cycle has usually led to some notable deviations from the expected trend in past occurrences.”

World Weather concludes: “The question is… how much of the ridge of high pressure occurring this week is a byproduct of weather trends in the atmosphere and how much is it related to just a knee-jerk reaction by the atmosphere responding to the sudden absence of cool air? Does the ridge of high pressure have a lasting basis for the heat and dryness or is it just a temporary phenomenon? Most of the longer-range modeling suggests it is more of a fluke than an omen of things to come. However, all major droughts that have impacted North America during the summer growing season occurred as the weather patterns strongly deviated from the prevailing trend at the time.”

Bottom line: “World Weather, Inc. does not believe that the current ridge of high pressure expected this weekend is a sign of things to come. We are still looking for some challenges to the growing season in the Plains and western Corn Belt, but a full blown drought like that of 2012 or 1988 or 1983 seems a little unlikely.”

Wide range for Ukrainian wheat production forecasts... A Ukrainian ag ministry official said on Monday the country’s grain harvest was likely to drop to around 48.5 MMT this year from 86 MMT last year following Russia's invasion. He projected wheat production in the 17 MMT to 20 MMT range.

European Union crop monitoring service MARS projected Ukraine’s wheat crop at 26.9 MMT, down 16% from last year’s level. However, MARS said an estimated 22% of wheat production was in zones currently affected by fighting following Russia’s invasion, suggesting production of about 21 MMT in areas away from active combat. MARS said adverse weather, including colder-than-usual spring temps and a lack of rain, would curb yields for winter crops in central and western regions.

MARS projected Ukraine’s 2022 corn crop at 35.3 MMT, down 16% from 2021, and sunflower seed output at 12.1 MMT, down 26%.

Brazilian soybean exports slow in May... Brazil exported 10.6 MMT of soybeans in May, according to official government data, down 1 MMT (8.6%) from May and 4.3 MMT (29%) less than last year. Brazilian corn exports totaled nearly 1.2 MMT last month, up 463,027 MT (65.9%) from April and well above only 13,919 MT shipped in May 2021.

GOP senators seek to overturn EPA on refiner biofuel waiver denials... Some Republican senators are looking at options for blocking the Biden administration from requiring small oil refiners to comply with U.S. biofuel-blending rules. As a first step, they are asking the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to weigh in on whether an Environmental Protection Agency decision denying more than 60 waivers falls under the scope of the Congressional Review Act, which allows lawmakers to overturn executive actions by a simple majority if moved within 60 days from the rule’s public action. Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Bill Hagerty of Tennessee made the request in a letter to GAO chief Gene Dodaro. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled last year EPA has wide latitude to exempt refineries. While the Biden administration has rejected dozens of waivers, it also is proposing to give small refineries more time to comply with past targets.

EPA seeks to maintain waters protections... The U.S. Supreme Court should uphold Clean Water Act protections for wetlands that aren’t directly connected to large bodies of water, the Environmental Protection Agency argued in a brief filed Friday in a case that will determine the extent of the federal government’s power over wetlands nationwide. At least three Biden administration rulemakings hinge on the outcome of the case.

Indonesia raises palm oil export allocation... Indonesia’s export allocation for palm oil products that is tied to domestic cooking oil distribution has been raised to 2.25 MMT, senior trade ministry official Oke Nurwan said, up from around 1 MMT previously. Of that allocation, the ministry has issued permits for overseas shipments of 560,421 MT of crude palm oil and its derivatives, he said.

This comes on top of the 1.16 MMT of export permits issued under the export acceleration program.